Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) fiscal Q2 comparable sales may fall short of the consensus forecast for a small gain as discretionary spending softens across the sporting-goods industry, UBS Securities said Tuesday in a report.

UBS estimates Q2 comparable sales will decline 1%, compared with the market expectation for a 0.1% gain, and expects tariff pressure to contribute to a gross margin drop.

Against this background, investors are more likely to focus on what Q2 results imply for the trajectory into H2, with the retailer expected to keep its 2026 guidance broadly unchanged, the report said.

In Q1, Academy raised its full-year outlook and expects comparable sales growth in the range of flat to up 2%, with adjusted EPS of $6.40 to $6.80.

Q2 results are due Sept. 9.

UBS maintained its neutral rating on Academy stock with a $55 price target.

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