Global Equities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
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The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0903 ET - Volkswagen's restructuring agreement is a major positive surprise and proves the company can implement its transformation program despite complex governance and labor constraints, Bank of America Securities analysts Horst Schneider and Stephen Benhamou write. Ahead of the meeting, media reports had suggested an escalating confrontation with labor and state representatives, potentially culminating in legal action or an extraordinary general meeting, the bank says. "Against this backdrop, we believe few expected a unanimous agreement." The plan envisages around 50,000 additional job reductions globally by 2030, taking the total number to 100,000, but the detailed measures still need to be agreed. It is therefore not yet clear when restructuring provisions will be booked, but the bank estimates gross charges of up to 10 billion euros, probably spread over several years. Shares rise 7.6%. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0828 ET - The latest retail earnings season was one of the more intense in recent memory, UBS analysts say in a research note. They describe investors' prevailing mood as a mix of apathy, caution and chagrin. "Investors are engaged, but not necessarily enthusiastic. They remain interested, but increasingly selective," the analysts write. "Most importantly, conviction feels harder earned than it has in years." The retail sector now lacks the abundance of long-duration, secular growth narratives that once anchored portfolios, leaving too much capital chasing too few compelling ideas. "Compounding this dynamic is an almost relentless stream of macroeconomic uncertainty." Against this backdrop, confidence has become relative, and selectivity remains exceptionally high. Neither is likely to change in the near future, the analysts say. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

0827 ET - The latest retail earnings season was one of the more intense in recent memory, UBS analysts say in a research note. They describe investors' prevailing mood as a mix of apathy, caution and chagrin. "Investors are engaged, but not necessarily enthusiastic. They remain interested, but increasingly selective," the analysts write. "Most importantly, conviction feels harder earned than it has in years." The retail sector now lacks the abundance of long-duration, secular growth narratives that once anchored portfolios, leaving too much capital chasing too few compelling ideas, the analysts say. "Compounding this dynamic is an almost relentless stream of macroeconomic uncertainty," they add. Against this backdrop, confidence has become relative, and selectivity remains exceptionally high. Neither is likely to change in the near future, the analysts say. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

0820 ET - Lululemon's latest results are likely to have scared off even longer-term investors, Oppenheimer analysts say. Prior to 2Q results, the stock had seemed to be attracting some "value type" interest from investors, the analysts say, but now even those value-oriented types are likely unnerved. The analysts believe the problems stem more from internal missteps than macroeconomic factors. As the company has waited for its new CEO to start next week, it has essentially operated as a "rudderless ship," the analysts say. Lululemon plunges 20%. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)

0816 ET - Descartes Systems has been spending on acquisitive growth, and it should pay off in the near future. RBC's Paul Treiber says that 2Q may slightly exceed his and consensus estimates, as it has in the last several quarters thanks to healthy organic growth and margins. He forecasts constant currency organic growth of 9% in 2Q, sequentially flat, on upselling, market share gains, ecommerce momentum, among other benefits. At the same time, the company's capital deployed on acquisitions should also help drive growth over the next year, according to Treiber. "We expect consensus estimates to increase following the quarter, due to contribution from $250MM worth of acquisitions currently not in consensus," he says. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0812 ET - Canadian software company Enghouse Systems hasn't made an acquisition in nearly a year, and organic growth isn't picking up the slack. RBC's Paul Treiber says 3Q will likely be below consensus expectations "due to likely continued negative organic growth and negative operating leverage." He estimates organic growth will fall by 12% in constant currency on "macro uncertainty delaying deals, reduced license and maintenance revenue from ongoing churn, and competition from vendors marketing new [artificial intelligence]-powered offerings." The analyst notes Enghouse has gone on without an acquisition in 10 months, which he says is one of the longest gaps in the company's history. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0812 ET - Lululemon Athletica's worsening Chinese business has added new uncertainty to the company's potential recovery. The Mainland China business had been one of the few bright spots and the strongest regional contributor to sales, Stifel analysts say. Yet executives say the Chinese market had a bad second quarter. Management now expects sales to grow by a high single-digit percentage, down from its prior guidance of roughly 20% growth, Truist analysts say. The unexpected downturn adds to investor concerns about a lack of visibility into when earnings may hit bottom, the Truist analysts add. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)

0756 ET - Sterling looks vulnerable over the coming months as the U.K. is expected to face increased inflationary and fiscal pressures, RBC BlueBay Asset Management's Mark Dowding says in a note. The U.K. is exposed to greater inflationary pressure from high energy prices than its eurozone peers as it lacks gas storage facilities, Dowding says. In addition, high government borrowing costs could put further strain on public finances and hurt the economy, he says. RBC BlueBay Asset Management has an underweight position on sterling as its sees few catalysts that would support a rally in the currency over the coming months. Sterling edges up 0.1% to last trade at $1.3533. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0748 ET - Investors still have a lot of unanswered questions about why Lululemon is struggling so much, Stifel analysts say. Lululemon slides 20% after 2Q sales fall steeply and guidance is cut again. While Lululemon's North American business is continuing to decline, its Mainland China business also had a surprising reversal after previously being the strongest regional contributor to sales, the analysts say. "We believe shares deserve a valuation discount given challenging visibility, poor traffic trends, and new questions around China growth potential," the analysts say.(katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)

0739 ET - Jefferies had been expecting that Lululemon's 2Q results wouldn't move the needle much. "We spoke too soon," they say. Lululemon plunges 20% after the retailer cut its outlook for the second time this year. The latest results show brand momentum continuing to fade, market share losses mounting and margins continuing to narrow, the analysts say. Lululemon is still dealing with high costs because its prior leadership opened more, bigger stores, they say. The analysts expect margins and EPS to keep dropping. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)

0701 ET - BRP is navigating tumultuous tariff waters better than feared, TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison says, noting that management reduced its F2027 net tariff exposure to around C$200 million from its prior guidance of C$300 million to C$350 million. Part of this is because BRP is launching a new side-by-side vehicle engineered to fit into lower-tax trade categories, bypassing higher import duties. "This should be complemented by reduced tariff rates on ATVs in June, partially offset by the commencement of S338 tariffs upon Spyder 3WVs," Morrison says. What's more, the company expects FY2028 tariff exposure to be C$225 million, "which we view as well below what we estimate is in consensus ($350mm-$375mm)." (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0657 ET - Palm oil closed higher on stronger soybean oil prices and ongoing concerns about medium-term output amid El Nino weather conditions affecting Malaysia and Indonesia, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng sees support at 4,900 ringgit a ton and resistance at 5,050 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for June delivery ended 27 ringgit higher to 4,931 ringgit a ton.

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