Snowflake has seen some of the biggest swings in this year's rollercoaster artificial-intelligence trade. A solid earnings report on Wednesday afternoon would validate its position as an AI winner.

The software company, which helps enterprises warehouse and analyze their data, is prone to huge stock moves after its quarterly reports. That trend, plus rising expectations from investors, raises the stakes even higher.

Snowflake stock is up 46% to $319.84 in 2026, but much of that gain came in one session on May 28, after the company beat expectations for its fiscal first quarter.

Zoom out, and the picture gets rockier: Snowflake shed more than half its value from late October 2025 to early April. Investors at the time worried that companies would increasingly deploy AI agents, reducing their need for human "seats" on popular software platforms.

Snowflake had a couple of advantages over its software peers. The company already uses a consumption pricing model based on the amount of data storage and compute resources customers actually use. Industry observers view this model as less vulnerable to disruption by AI agents.

Second, AI agents still require access to data, making platforms like Snowflake perhaps even more useful in the AI era, according to Karl Keirstead, an analyst at UBS. The firm has a Buy rating and a $425 price target on Snowflake stock.

Analysts expect Snowflake to report adjusted earnings of 45 cents a share for the fiscal second quarter, per FactSet, up from 35 cents a year ago. Revenue is expected to climb almost 30% year over year to $1.48 billion. That would represent a deceleration from 33% growth last quarter.

The company forecast product revenue of $1.415 billion to $1.42 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 12.5%. Product revenue excludes Snowflake's small professional services business.

Another sizable beat and raise would be huge news for shareholders. Snowflake shares have had a median swing in either direction of 14.1% after the company's last eight earnings reports.

Of course, that means there is some downside risk entering Wednesday, too.

Competitive dynamics could weigh on results, or at least make investors skittish. Microsoft, privately-held software darling Databricks, and AI models themselves are all threatening to eat into Snowflake's market share, even if the entire data industry is growing.

In KeyBanc Capital Markets' quarterly discussions, data-warehousing customers reported growing plans to use large-language models to optimize spending on Snowflake-though those efforts aren't off the ground yet. KeyBanc still reiterated an Overweight rating on Snowflake stock and lifted its price target to $375 from $325.

The other risk is heightened expectations. Plenty of tech companies have posted earnings seen as "good, but not good enough" in recent weeks, and Snowflake could be another victim of its own success.

After its spring and summer surge, Snowflake shares now trade at a staggering 16 times projected revenue over the next 12 months. That valuation is in line with Snowflake's long-term average, but well above the broader iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, which trades at 7.7 times forward revenue.

"This leaves little room for error," Keirstead, the UBS analyst, wrote of the valuation. "But in our view investors are likely to be more generous with valuation multiples for the small number of accelerating AI-driven software stocks."