August Jobs Report Removes an Obstacle to a Fed Hike

Dow Jones
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Federal Reserve officials had made clear in the run-up to their Sept. 15-16 meeting that inflation data, more than anything else, would help them decide whether or not to raise rates after having held them steady this year. Even if the strong August employment report does not change that calculus, it does remove an objection to raising rates.

Had August been weak on top of a negative July print, there might have been a better argument against tightening: Why raise rates into a labor market that's not showing any strength? That argument isn't available after Friday's employment report flipped July's negative reading to positive and pushed six-month average hiring growth to the highest level in more than two years.

Removing an objection to a hike isn't the same as building the case for one. Fed officials don't see the labor market as a source of inflationary pressure. Wage growth has been moderate, and they don't believe they need to slow hiring to bring prices down.

Still, steady job and income growth matters as another sign that interest rates may not be restraining the economy much if at all. Fed governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that a healthy labor market won't be a large factor in his rate decision, but it does provide a backdrop for thinking about whether policy is doing enough to bring inflation down. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said last week he would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.

A labor market still adding jobs also lowers the cost of acting: If August inflation reports-due at the end of next week-nudge officials toward raising rates this month, they can do it with less fear of tipping a fragile job market over the edge. That leaves next week's inflation data in the driver's seat as the variable that decides this.

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