M&T Bank (MTB) is expected to repurchase about $2.9 billion of stock in 2027, above the current consensus estimate of $1.7 billion, Morgan Stanley said Tuesday in a report.

Morgan Stanley sees upside to the bank's net interest income and buyback outlook as loan growth accelerates and M&T manages capital to lower levels under new rules.

M&T operates in a relatively less competitive regional market in the Northeast, supporting its deposit-cost performance compared with peers, especially banks based in the Southeast or Texas, the report said.

Based on its new relationship depth framework, which measures client relationships, Morgan Stanley said M&T is favorably positioned versus peers, helping sustain its funding and profitability advantage as industry competition intensifies.

Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on M&T stock to overweight from equal-weight and raised its price target to $304 from $253.

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