Further ECB Hikes Beyond Thursday Would be Deliberately Restrictive

Dow Jones
09/08

1329 GMT - Additional European Central Bank rate hikes following an expected increase this week would mean a deliberate move into restrictive territory, Vontobel's Gregor Kapferer says in a note. A deposit rate of 2.50%, where markets expect it to sit following a 25 basis-point hike on Thursday, is generally viewed as the upper limit of a neutral range, Kapferer says. Further hikes to combat the energy-supply shock, over which monetary policy has no influence, would therefore mean policy was having a restrictive impact on the economy, Kapferer says. "Our baseline scenario therefore remains that there will be no further rate hikes [beyond September], barring a renewed acceleration in core inflation or wage inflation," the head of developed markets debt says.

 

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