Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump are set to meet later this month in yet another bid to stabilize the relationship-and extend a truce struck last fall. But analysts are keeping tabs on a multitude of potential speed bumps along the way.

The planned Sept. 24 meeting in Washington, D.C., which Beijing has still yet to confirm, will mark Xi's first trip to the capitol in more than a decade. It follows Trump's trip to Beijing last May, when the two dialed down tensions following months of tariff threats and, among other things, export restrictions.

The bar was set low for the May visit-and it is again.

Analysts are looking for any indications that the two leaders plan to extend last fall's truce, which paused a U.S. escalation in tariffs and postponed China's planned stricter controls on its rare-earth exports. It also called on Beijing to buy more U.S. agricultural products. That truce is set to expire Nov. 10.

Both sides will also look for an easing on access to key products-for instance, those crucial rare-earth minerals for the U.S. and advanced technology for China.

But the interpretation of "constructive strategic stability" in the truce is already creating friction. China sees the truce to mean no new restrictions, or offensive measures, as the two sides work toward a long-term way to manage bilateral tensions, says Gerard DiPippo, director of global macro at Eurasia Group. But the U.S. sees it as a narrower cease-fire to keep any new actions from triggering a continuing spiral of escalation.

Experts already see potential spoilers bubbling up as the two sides get ready to talk. Here are the ones they are monitoring closely.

Mounting restrictions

The U.S. added more Chinese firms to a list that restricts sales to companies with ties to China's military. The Federal Communications Commission, meanwhile, in July, approved a sweeping ban of devices that contain hardware inputs from Chinese companies like Huawei. The problem: national security concerns. Beijing views both as a violation of the truce.

And more restrictions could be ahead. The Trump administration is poised to pursue a rule that would close the remote-access loophole that lets Chinese AI firms use banned U.S. chips through overseas data centers. That's according to Veda Partners analysts who reckon that cloud computing giants like Oracle and Amazon, which have close ties to the Trump administration, may be able to get restrictions watered down.

The bigger source of friction: The U.S. makes a move on China's open-source Chinese AI models, which are gaining traction among developers. These models are far cheaper than those from the likes of Anthropic or OpenAI. Nvidia last week said it would buy AI platform Hugging Face, aiding the chipmaker's efforts to support open-source models.

One possibility, says DiPippo, is restricting U.S. cloud providers from servicing those Chinese models. Chinese companies would then have to rely on domestic producers, who may not have the computing power to meet demand. If that happens, expect China to retaliate.

The AI rivalry is already creating more back and forth this week. U.S. security agencies on Tuesday alleged that six China-based companies engaged in "aggressive, malicious, and targeted" distillation activities, reiterating earlier warnings in a joint alert. But this time the agencies named companies, including DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, and Alibaba.

Liu Chang, a spokesman for China's embassy in Washington, D.C., said in a statement that China's AI development comes from "greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology, and is fueled by China's vision of extensive consultation and joint contribution for shared benefit." Liu called the U.S. allegations a "deliberate attack on China's development and progress."

Liu called on the U.S. to opt for a path conducive to science and technology exchanges and cooperation, and pushed back against "politicizing and instrumentalizing trade and tech issues."

Meanwhile, the use of munitions in the war in Iran has again highlighted U.S. dependence on China for rare-earths and is likely to further propel an investment spree to find other sources. But for several years still, the U.S. will need to keep tapping China's supply, giving it a critical piece of leverage.

While China is allowing licenses for critical mineral exports, it is doing it in a controlled way to keep others from building inventories or transship them, DiPippo says. Earlier this summer, Beijing also imposed rare-earth export restrictions on ten American companies, including MP Materials and USA Rare Earth. Expect more of the same if China gets its back up.

Tariffs 'R' Us

Tariffs are also still in the mix and could be another source of friction. The U.S. is expected to impose tariffs related to a probe into excess capacity targeting 16 countries including China-as it tries to rebuilds tariff revenue after the Supreme Court struck down Trump's global tariffs in February.

Most analysts expect the U.S. to unveil a tariff of at least 7.5% against China for excess manufacturing capacity that is contributing to a flurry of cheap exports. However, some experts think the administration may wait until after the summit, if not even after midterm elections in November, reflecting widespread concerns about affordability.

But as long as tariffs stay at 7.5% or below, analysts expect only very measured retaliation from Beijing.

China, meanwhile, has been pushing back against criticism from the U.S. and Europe about its industrial overcapacity and reliance on exports. Beijing was the sole dissenter this past week to a statement out of the Group of 20 calling on economies heavily reliant on exports to stop distorting trade. During a press briefing, a spokesperson for China's Commerce Ministry said the G-20 was promoting protectionism.

Revenge moves

The Trump administration rolled out plans for an economic D-Day, targeting Iran's enablers. When asked if those plans included China, Iran's biggest trading partner, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said no one was above the reach of U.S. sanctions. He declined to address directly if the U.S. would target China.

If the U.S. does push China harder on Iran, that could be another area of increased escalation. Analysts are skeptical the U.S. would target China directly.

One reason: Beijing's control of rare earths, as well as its dominance in, among other things, the pharma food chain, says Josh Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council for Foreign Relations.

Investors are hoping the leverage each side has will mean the fragile status quo sticks. The next couple of weeks will offer further clues on whether investors will be able to keep U.S.-China tensions toward the bottom of their worry list.