Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
昨天

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1101 ET - Saudi Arabia leads most major Gulf stocks lower, with the Tadawul All Share Index falling 0.9%. The Dubai Financial Market General Index declines 0.8% and Qatar's QE Index loses 0.5%, while Abu Dhabi's benchmark index bucks the trend, edging up 0.2%. The divergence across Gulf equities appears largely positioning-driven, with geopolitical uncertainty and shifting U.S. rate expectations encouraging investors to reduce exposure to higher-beta markets, says Milad Azar, market analyst at XTB MENA. Investors are favoring markets and companies offering stronger balance sheets, liquidity and earnings visibility until geopolitical risks ease, he says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1027 ET - Precious metals are modestly lower as the market looks to tomorrow's Fed interest-rate decision, which is widely expected to be a rate increase. The risk of higher yields extends beyond the U.S., DHF Capital CEO Bas Kooijman says in a note. "Persistent tensions in the Middle East have kept oil prices high, sustaining inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that monetary policy will remain restrictive across major economies." Silver could find support in industrial demand, he adds, noting a rise in Chinese industrial output led by equipment and high-tech manufacturing. "Sustained strength in these sectors could support silver consumption." Silver for December delivery is off 0.1% in New York at $64.05 a troy ounce. Gold is down 0.5% at $4,331.10 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0905 ET - U.S. natural gas futures add to Monday's gains as more days of hot weather are seen before cooling demand is set to taper off toward the end of the month. After strong demand the next five days, "national demand eases to moderate then low levels for days 6-15 as the southern U.S. cools several degrees and with highs of mostly 80s to lower 90s," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "In addition, the northern half of the U.S. will be perfect temperature-wise with comfortable highs of 60s-80s for light demand." Nymex natural gas is up 1.4% at $2.936/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0850 ET - Oil futures are higher in early U.S. trading amid market pessimism about flows out of the Middle East following the outage of a key Saudi pipeline and the increased Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping. "With Hormuz, the Saudi bypass and Bab al-Mandeb all simultaneously exposed, the market is pricing a broader loss of route flexibility, not just a supply shock," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo says in a note. "Unless there's a credible diplomatic breakthrough, the risk premium looks set to stay elevated." WTI is up 1.6% at $103..00 a barrel and Brent rises 1% at $106.75. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0656 ET - AtkinsRealis Group's nuclear opportunity is bigger than the market currently appreciates, says TD Cowen analyst Michael Tupholme. He says that the company's proprietary Candu nuclear reactor opportunity is quite large, especially for new builds. Tupholme points to Ontario, where in the province alone new builds alone represent a revenue opportunity of around C$38 billion compared with its current nuclear segment backlog of C$4.2 billion. The analyst says that a catalyst to look out for will be a favorable Ontario nuclear-technology selection decision, expected in 2H. "We expect strong Nuclear results over our forecast horizon (even before considering new build upside), while we see a favourable nuclear tech. decision for Ontario new builds as a re-rating catalyst," Tupholme says. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0605 ET - Palm oil rose in Asia's trading session. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery closed 33 ringgit higher at 4,883 ringgit a metric ton. Prices were likely supported by overnight strength in rival edible oils and persistent concerns of El Nino-related hot-and-dry weather conditions expected to affect output, Kenanga Futures wrote in a note. Kenanga pegs resistance for the November futures contract at 4,950 ringgit a ton. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0419 ET - Spillovers from rising global government bond yields into the foreign exchange market have been modest so far, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. This is highlighted by low measures of volatility in the forex market, he says. However, the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Swedish krona and emerging markets currencies have underperformed. "Downside risks for those currencies would intensify if rising bond yields and energy prices triggered a deeper correction lower for risk assets heading into year end," he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0416 ET - Markets await U.K. inflation data due to be released on Wednesday to gain insights on the impact of the Middle East conflict and high energy prices, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. "August CPI print takes on outsized importance as policymakers gauge whether imported energy costs will spill over into broader wage setting," Munnelly says. Tuesday's U.K. jobs data were weak, showing payrolled employees declined by 26,000 between July and August. The unemployment rate remained relatively high at 4.9% in the three months to July. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0401 ET - Gold futures are down 0.5% at $4,331.20 a troy ounce in morning European trade. The fall comes as higher energy prices reinforce expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin raising rates, ANZ analysts say. Higher interest rates weigh on non-yield assets like gold. Tightening oil supplies push Brent crude up 2% to $107.70 a barrel. Expectations of higher inflation mean traders now price in an 86% probability of a hike at next week's meeting, they say.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0351 ET - European natural gas prices remain well supported, with the Dutch TTF contract trading down 0.3% at 82.265 euros a megawatt-hour. Prices show little prospect of falling further as escalation in the Middle East dents chances of an imminent pickup in LNG flows from the Persian Gulf, ING analysts write. The global LNG market will therefore be tight as the Northern hemisphere enters its heating season and means Europe will struggle to hit the lower end of its storage targets, which aims for at least 75%, ahead of winter, they say. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0347 ET - Samsung SDI's 3Q earnings could get a boost from one-off gains in connection with winding up its battery joint venture with General Motors, says NH Investment & Securities' Ju Min-woo. The South Korean battery maker could receive about 150 billion won in compensation from GM, which exited the JV in August, the analyst says. Samsung SDI has acquired GM's stake to become the sole owner of the JV, which has a battery plant under construction in Indiana. NH expects Samsung SDI's 3Q operating profit to come in at about 260 billion won, well above a market consensus estimate of 107 billion won. NH raises its target price for the stock to 730,000 won from 600,000 won and keeps a buy rating. Shares rose 2.8% to close at 547,000 won. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

0333 ET - European oil stocks are mixed at the open despite oil posting gains as traders assess the impact of lost Saudi Arabian volumes after the attack on the country's East-West pipeline. Tightening supplies push Brent crude up 2% to $107.70 a barrel and WTI 2% higher at $103.37 a barrel. Such oil-price gains have tended to push oil stocks higher since the conflict with Iran began. However, only Spain's Repsol records a notable gain, rising 1.5%. Italy's Eni rises 0.4%. Britain's BP falls 0.3% while Shell trades flat. Broader economic sentiment has weakened in recent days following mounting warnings over an AI slowdown and 10-year Treasury yields hitting 5% for the first time since October 2023.

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