The time between September and December passes in the blink of an eye. And once again, retailers are up at bat.

Back to school is behind us, but the holiday shopping frenzy begins in October, meaning retailers' biggest season is just a few weeks away. Unfortunately they face a tough setup. Persistent inflation is weighing on shoppers and pushing up input and labor costs. It's also souring investor sentiment on consumer stocks: The consumer discretionary sector is deep in the red year to date, while the consumer staples sector's 2026 rise still lags behind the S&P 500.

Things aren't entirely bleak, however. It might not have seemed like it, given that the second-quarter earnings season included so many big selloffs, but there was more expansion than average in terms of retailers' margins and top- and bottom-line results. There were success stories too, like Best Buy's ability to beat high expectations and new hope at Old Navy following the Gap division's leadership change. Many companies noted ongoing resilience among their customer base, even if they remain very value conscious.

Higher gas prices are a burden for many shoppers, but that is somewhat offset by a relatively strong labor market and recent years' wage growth, which has helped Americans regain some of the purchasing power they lost during the pandemic era. Holiday spending has broken records in recent years despite inflation, and that could be the case again. Deliotte expects holiday retail sales growth as high as 4.8% this year, to some $1.7 trillion, led by e-commerce.

From proven winners to retailers on the road to recovery, there are clear options for investors who think American consumers won't let them down.

Walmart

Walmart's stock took a beating after its fiscal second-quarter results last month. Yet that looks like a buying opportunity. It's true that its same-store sales growth was its slowest in years, mandatory lower drug prices hurt its top line, and that the company is funneling much of its tariff refunds into price cuts. Yet the world's largest bricks-and-mortar retailer is thriving in the e-commerce age, using tech to its advantage, from increasingly automated distribution centers to AI-powered product search. Its valuation, while still plump, doesn't look as inflated as it once did.

Target

Speaking of big box stores, Target's comeback looks like it's finally taking hold. The turnaround has been years in the making, and even a big 60% year-to-date run hasn't put it close to its pandemic-era peak. Nonetheless, the company's recent earnings reports have shown promise, sparking investor hopes that new management is finally finding a formula-and merchandise-that works. Wolfe Research analyst Spencer Hanus sees a turned corner: "Month over month, it feels like we're visiting a new Target; whether it's the fashion 'edits,' beauty studio, or center of store, newness continues."

Ralph Lauren

Quiet luxury looks to be napping, based on the lack of love for Ralph Lauren stock. Time to wake up. In the most recent quarter, Ralph Lauren's revenue, earnings per share, gross margins, and margins on earnings before interest and taxes, or Ebit, all expanded above expectations. Inventories also looked healthy, and consensus estimates for the full year and the next were revised higher following the report. Despite all that, the shares have since slumped. The market isn't giving Ralph Lauren enough credit for its on-point merchandising and the relative resilience of its higher-income shoppers.

Ross Stores

Off-price has long been one of the brightest spots in retail, and Ross Stores has been its breakout star this year. Its blockbuster first-quarter same-store sales raised the bar, and its second quarter easily cleared it, thanks to strong sales, margin expansion, and an upbeat outlook. The results support the idea that the company is in the midst of a real upswing. It's attracting new, often younger customers as it bolsters its social-media presence, and its ability to deliver value is important to consumers who are dealing with ongoing inflation.

SharkNinja

Household-products maker SharkNinja has done well since Barron's has been recommending it, most recently in June. The company's beat-and-raise quarter in August shows that SharkNinja still knows how to give people what they want, churning out innovative products that often go viral. August saw search volume climb 38% for more than 100 of the company's trademarks tracked by Jefferies analyst Randal Konik, who thinks the shares should trade to $240, up more than 40%. Thanks to new artificial-intelligence tools for monitoring profitability in real time, the company can now lean into its best-performing categories.

Amazon.com

It feels like cheating to include Amazon.com in a list of promising retailers, since it's much more of an AI play-and one that, judging from its most recent earnings report, is doing quite well. Yet Amazon is still the world's largest e-commerce retailer, and it's the gold standard for online sales. And while it may seem like online shopping already took over during the pandemic, it's still expanding, as 2027 is expected to be another year of double-digit compound annual growth for e-commerce sales. The company does face questions about the recent fatal cargo plane crash in Miami, but those should prove manageable given the company's size. The stock's forward price-to-earnings ratio, meanwhile, is just a few turns above the S&P 500's.