North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures up Ahead of Expected Fed Rate Hike

Dow Jones
2小時前

Stock futures were on the rise Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal

Reserve's interest-rate decision.

Brent crude futures fell back a little, trading below $108 a barrel in early European trading after rising nearly 3% on Tuesday. "The pullback followed signs that the rally had become technically stretched," MUFG said.

Meanwhile, global government bond yields edged higher, though stayed below the multiyear highs reached Tuesday.

The big event on Wednesday is the Fed's decision, with the central bank widely expected to hike interest rates for the first time in more than three years. Markets have priced in a 93% chance of the central bank raising rates by one-quarter point, according to FedWatch.

"What matters is not just whether the Fed hikes, but whether the bond market believes the move is enough," Tickmill Group said. "For traders, the key question is whether [Fed Chair Kevin] Warsh can deliver a hawkish hike without reviving disorderly bond selling or crushing risk appetite."

Any remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh will be closely watched for signals on the Fed's forward path, although he has previously steered away from giving guidance.

Watch For:

U.S. Retail Sales for August; U.S. Import Prices for August: U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for September; U.S. Business Inventories for July; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; FOMC interest-rate decision and economic projections; Canada Housing Starts for August; Canada Building Permits for July

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- EU Chief Will Work to Make Canada First Associate Member of the Bloc

- OpenAI Considers Pre-IPO Funding Round at More Than $1.2 Trillion Valuation

- Apple Finally Built a Smarter Siri. It Still Hasn't Caught Up in the AI Race.

MARKET WRAPS Forex:

The dollar traded steady. The greenback would probably benefit only marginally from a rate rise since such a move is nearly fully priced in, Commerzbank said.

Sterling was little moved after the latest U.K. inflation data came in line with expectations ahead of the BOE's policy decision Thursday.

Bonds:

Treasury yields edged lower in early trade but continued to hover around new multiyear highs reached Tuesday.

The 10-year Treasury yield did not go to 5% because something broke in America, it went to 5% in the company of every other global bond yield, said Siebert Financial.

Energy:

Brent fell 0.5% while WTI fell nearly 1%. Both benchmarks remained near four-month highs after settling Tuesday at their highest levels since May 19.

Metals:

Gold rose as oil prices and Treasury yields eased ahead of the Fed's interest-rate announcement.

Copper

Copper prices gained on better-than-expected economic data in China. Three-month LME prices were 0.8% higher at $14,114 a metric ton after the value of Chinese exports was boosted by higher prices for technology products, ANZ said.

Iron ore

Iron ore prices were lower in early Asian trade, weighed by high supply and weakening steel demand, Citic Futures said.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Mucinex Maker Bets $400 Million More on U.S. Supply Chain

The maker of Mucinex and Lysol is doubling down on U.S. product development and manufacturing to respond more quickly to shifts in consumer demand.

Consumer-goods seller Reckitt Benckiser Group said Wednesday it plans to invest about $400 million over the next four years in the U.S., building on a $200 million commitment made in 2024.

Trump Administration Shift Puts This Corner of Biotech Back in Favor

Betting on biotech is always a gamble. But in the first year of the Trump administration, few corners were dicier than rare-disease drugmakers.

These companies often test drugs in tiny patient groups, sometimes without the usual features of large trials, such as placebo controls. In the second Trump administration, they suddenly found themselves facing Food and Drug Administration officials skeptical of approving drugs on such limited evidence. Rare-disease shares plunged.

OpenAI Considers Pre-IPO Funding Round at More Than $1.2 Trillion Valuation

OpenAI has held early discussions with investors about a new funding round that could value it at more than $1.2 trillion on the heels of the release of its latest cutting-edge model, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The ChatGPT developer was valued at $852 billion in March after completing a $122 billion financing from investors including Amazon, Nvidia and SoftBank. If completed, the new round would precede the company's highly anticipated initial public offering, now expected next year.

TikTok Parent's Revenue Grows as AI Spending Pressures Profits

ByteDance's artificial-intelligence spending pressured profit in the first half of the year, but the TikTok parent's revenue accelerated as a U.S. regulatory overhang cleared, people familiar with the matter said.

Revenue rose more than 30% to $120 billion during the period, buoyed by growth in the company's international advertising, livestreaming and TikTok e-commerce business, the people said. Net profit eased to $20 billion, they added.

EU Chief Proposes Making Canada First Associate Member of the Bloc

The European Union's top official said she would work to make Canada the bloc's first associate member, as traditional U.S. allies forge stronger ties in the face of tensions with the Trump administration.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Europe needed to tighten its cooperation with like-minded democracies, in particular Canada, to retain the continent's sovereignty and tackle threats from what she called "an openly hostile world."

Oil Pares Gains, Stock Futures Steady as Cautious Optimism Heralds Fed Day

U.S. stock futures were steady and oil edged lower in early European trade as market sentiment stabilized ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy rate decision later Wednesday.

Markets are near-certain the Fed will raise rates, with a 91% expectation for a quarter-point hike, according to LSEG. As well as the decision, any remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh will be closely watched for signals on the Fed's forward path, although he has previously steered away from giving guidance.

Eyes on Fed Decision After Bitcoin Trades Near 4-Week Low on Failed Clarity Vote

Bitcoin was trading at a near four-week low Wednesday as investors await the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision later in the day, after the digital currency fell Tuesday following the U.S. Senate's rejection of a crypto-friendly bill.

Bitcoin traded at $75,491 in early European trading, after falling around 4% a day earlier to as low as $75,026.

Americans Have Spent $100 Billion More on Fuel During the Iran War

Oil prices' lurch above $100 a barrel is propelling the U.S. past another unwelcome milestone: The war with Iran is sticking Americans with a 12-figure bill.

U.S. consumers have collectively spent about $107 billion more on gasoline and diesel during the Iran conflict and disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict than they would have had there been no war, according to estimates by the Climate Solutions Lab at Brown University. That averages to more than $500 million a day since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, and a recent surge in crude assures that the price tag will only grow in the weeks ahead.

NBC News Helicopter Crashes in Los Angeles, Killing Three

An NBC News helicopter crashed in a Los Angeles neighborhood, killing at least three people while covering a deadly collision involving a Metro bus.

The aircraft came down in a parking lot near a self-storage facility in Chatsworth, a community in Los Angeles's San Fernando Valley, according to the Los Angeles Fire Department.

U.S. Probes Cyberattacks on Energy Tankers Bound for American Coast

At least two foreign tankers bound for American shores were targeted in cyberattacks now under U.S. government investigation, fueling concerns that Iran or other adversaries are seeking to widen the Middle East conflict, according to U.S. officials familiar with the incidents.

A specialized team led by the U.S. Coast Guard that included Federal Bureau of Investigation agents boarded the two tankers in August after they arrived in the Gulf of Mexico, the officials said.

How a Chinese Hacking Firm Tapped AI to Supercharge Cyber-Spying

Some of China's scrappiest hackers-for-hire are evolving into full-service private intelligence agencies, exploiting advances in artificial intelligence and other technologies to put stolen secrets of foreign governments at the fingertips of the country's security agencies.

A trove of internal data belonging to a China-based cybersecurity company, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, provides a new window into an evolution that international cybersecurity experts have tracked in recent years.

Write to priscila.barrera@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA Earnings:

Dollarama Inc. 2Q

Economic Indicators (ET):

0815 Aug Housing Starts 0830 Jul Building permits 0830 Aug Model-based Principal Field Crop Estimates 1330 Bank of Canada summary of monetary policy deliberations

Stocks to Watch:

Brookfield Agrees to US$2.9B Acquisition of Australia's Reliance Choice Properties REIT Announces Issuance of C$300M of Series Y Senior Unsecured Debentures

Minerals 260 Raises A$250M Via Two-Tranche Share Placement; Raise Included A$30M Commitment From Franco-Nevada; Strong Support From Existing Institutional Shareholders; Placement Introduced New Domestic, International Institutional Investors; to Raise Up to A$30M in Share Purchase Plan; Expects Proforma Cash Balance of A$633M; Expects Remaining Bullabulling Funding Via Debt; Has Received Nonbinding Term Sheets for Finance

Expected Major Events for Wednesday 06:00/UK: Aug Producer Price Index

08:00/ITA: Aug CPI

08:30/UK: Jun Card Spending statistics

08:30/UK: Aug CPI

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