NYMEX Overview: Oil Futures Rally on Saudi Pipeline Outage, Red Sea Threats

Dow Jones
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Oil futures rallied Tuesday following last week's shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline and Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping.

As of 11:45 a.m. ET, October West Texas Intermediate was trading $3.30 higher at $104.69, with November WTI up $2.48 at $99.62/bbl. November ICE Brent crude was trading $2.12 higher at $107.80/bbl, with December up $1.58 at $102.57/bbl.

Refined product futures were also trading higher. The October ULSD contract rose 27.21cts to $5.2336/gal, with the November contract up 24.56cts at $5.009/gal. October RBOB rose 10.71cts to $3.4242/gal, with the November contract up 8.94cts at $3.2268/gal.

Damage to the East-West Pipeline could reduce exports from the port of Yanbu by 2.5 million to 2.7 million b/d, according to Kpler data. The 750-mile pipeline can transport as much as 7 million b/d from Saudi Arabia's eastern oil-producing region to Yanbu, on the Red Sea, providing an alternative to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is seeking to restore partial operations within days, although damaged pumping stations could take six to eight weeks to fully repair, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Concerns over alternative export routes have been compounded by heightened risks to Red Sea shipping. The Houthis seized Perim Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait over the weekend after taking the nearby port of Mokha, according to reports. Saudi crude loadings from Yanbu had already fallen to about 1.1 million b/d in August from more than 4 million b/d in April-June, according to LSEG data. Analysts at Rystad Energy note that Red Sea inventory draws can only cover Yanbu crude exports for two to six days, though drawing on additional storage in Egypt could extend that window by another week.

On Tuesday morning, reports indicated the 400,000 b/d YASREF refinery in Yanbu, a major exporter of diesel to Europe and Asia, was struck by Houthi forces.

An overnight Ukrainian drone strike on Russia's 160,000 b/d Syzran refinery added to supply anxieties.

The refining disruptions come as U.S. diesel supply tightens ahead of the Northern Hemisphere harvest and winter heating seasons. The U.S. average retail diesel price reached a record $6.27/gal Tuesday, according to AAA, while the WTI 3-2-1 crack spread was about $65/bbl at the time of reporting, reflecting historically tight refined product availability relative to crude inputs.

 
 

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