Oil over $100 Has JPMorgan Stock-Market Strategists Fearing a Missing Out on a Swift Decline

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This handout satellite image shows a view of a pumping station along the general route of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline (Petroline) in al-Mesabaah, southeast of Medina, on September 13, 2026, following an attack and resulting fires on September 11.

Oil prices remained above the $100 threshold on Monday - and strategists recommend seizing the opportunity to buy stocks.

Brent crude's contract for November delivery (BRN00) (BRNX26) advanced over 3% to $108.09 a barrel, up almost 20% since the start of the month. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate's October contract (CL00) (CLV26) rose 3% to $103.11 a barrel, up 20% in the same period.

In some of the latest developments, Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline - which had been used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz - after drone attacks on the facility. The Saudis blamed militants in Iraq for the damage.

Even though both the international benchmark and the U.S. benchmark have significantly jumped in two weeks as tensions in the Middle East have escalated, JPMorgan sees stocks weathering the storm.

"Of course, any further spike in oil means lower equities, but equally, if one turns bearish as oil is up, one risks being whipsawed on any subsequent de-escalating headlines," Mislav Matejka, head of global and European equity strategy at the investment bank, wrote in a Monday note.

He said that even if the Federal Open Market Committee decides to raise interest rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday, in an environment of strong earnings growth and inflation remaining anchored, stocks should weather it.

Matejka advised using any market weakness caused by surging oil prices to add to portfolios ahead of likely better trading when companies report their third-quarter earnings results in October and November.

In August, JPMorgan raised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 from 7,800 to 8,000, having increased its earnings-per-share target for the stock index by 29% year-on-year to $350.

Patrick Munnelly, market strategist at Tickmill Group, told MarketWatch that President Donald Trump's suggestion that the war in Iran could stretch beyond the midterm elections in November, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels' continued attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and an already tight Brent crude market owing to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have all driven the risk premium significantly higher.

For many investors, he noted the meeting on September 24 between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping "represents the last credible off-ramp."

"However, with neither side showing any clear willingness to back down, traders increasingly believe Brent may need to retest its previous highs before price pressure becomes intense enough to force a political resolution," Munnelly added.

-Nora Redmond

 

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