August PCE Shaping up to Support a Fed Hold

Dow Jones
昨天

1123 ET - August PCE inflation is already shaping up as a potentially dovish event, Citi economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark write. They observe that Fed officials increased their forecast for year-end annual PCE to 3.4% from 3.3% in their latest projection. However, revisions to the methodology are expected to shave 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point from the data due Sept. 30. The implication is either that revisions were not included in the new projections or "officials expect very strong (0.30%+MoM) readings in coming months." If the FOMC wants to stay on hold in October, "a softer revised PCE path can be part of the rationale," Hollenhorst and Clark say.

 

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