Global Bond Yields Rise Amid Expectations of More Rate Rises

Dow Jones
2小時前

Global bond yields rose on Friday, hovering near multiyear highs, after the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates this week, with more increases expected to come.

The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, and signaled another raise to come this year, which convinced markets about the seriousness of the Fed's inflation fight.

This initially pulled yields away from recent highs. However, the factors that drove bond yields higher in the first place remained, namely the risk of oil prices staying elevated for a prolonged period, high debt levels, and competition for funding from AI-related companies.

"The Fed may have reinforced its inflation-fighting credentials, but heavy government borrowing, elevated term premium and growing private-sector competition for capital mean long yields remain supported by forces that monetary policy alone cannot easily resolve," said Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose back to the 5% level reached earlier this week for the first time since 2023. It was recently at 5.002%. The two-year yield, which tracks Fed moves more closely, touched 4.744%, its highest intraday yield since July 2024 when it hit 4.775%.

Yield moves have mirrored oil prices in recent weeks, but the trend broke on Friday, as Brent fell 1% to $104 a barrel.

Following a Bank of England's hold on Thursday, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% on Friday, the highest since 1995, albeit in a split vote.

The 10-year Japanese government bond yield was steady at 2.998% after the BOJ decision. With two board members voting against the rate increase, the move wasn't enough to boost the yen, which weakened nearly 1% against the dollar.

Analysts warned that global yields could still rise further.

"The global rebuilding of term premia is not yet complete, and markets still have scope to price a more aggressive path of central bank rate hikes," Societe Generale rates strategists said in a note.

The 10-year German Bund yield rose 2.0 basis points to 3.500%, below a peak of 3.572% hit earlier this week, its highest since 2009. The 10-year U.K. gilt yield climbed 5.7 bps to 5.275%, below this week's peak of 5.493%, its highest since 2007.

Central bank leaders acknowledged the rising inflation risks and signaled more rate rises in the coming months, causing markets to price in three or more rate increases by major central banks in the next year, LSEG data showed.

"The medicine from the Fed is working and may have prevented the rates selloff from spiraling out of control," said Commerzbank rates strategist Marco Stoeckle in a note.

Gilt yields were also lifted after Friday's U.K. retail sales data for August came in better than expected, suggesting that household spending stayed resilient despite high energy costs and increased prospects of higher interest rates by the Bank of England in the future.

--Paulo Trevisani contributed to this article.

 

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