European Midday Briefing: Markets Digest Trump's Iran Threats

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MARKET WRAPS

Stocks:

European shares were lower, struggling for direction after losing the gains made at the open as oil prices changed direction.

Sentiment had been rising on hopes a deal between U.S. and Iran could be nearer and Brent oil futures closed at under $100 a barrel for the first time in more than two weeks.

In a speech at the U.N. Tuesday Trump predicted that Tehran would make a deal with the U.S. after the election to dismantle its nuclear work and end the war.

After that, the U.S. president argued, "oil prices will come plummeting down."

Trump also met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday.

After the meeting Zelensky said he believed the U.S. would pursue a deal to halt attacks on energy infrastructure.

"I think he will try to negotiate some energy ceasefire."

On Thursday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to make his first visit in a decade to the White House to meet with Trump.

Investors will be watching for information on tariffs reductions, as well as any signs of cooperation on AI and the war in Iran, but there is also skepticism the dialogue would most likely by little meaningful action.

U.S. Markets:

Futures were mixed early on with the Dow rising and the Nasdaq tracking lower.

Meta investors will be watching Wednesday as CEO Mark Zuckerberg takes the (virtual) stage at the company's annual Connect conference.

They will be expecting to hear about its buzzy Muse AI personal assistant and AI-powered glasses.

Forex:

The dollar rose to an almost eight-week high against a basket of currencies, driven by expectations the Fed could raise interest rates further.

Interest-rate differentials between the U.S. and eurozone have shifted in favor of the dollar against the euro as energy prices eased, Commerzbank said.

Sterling remained weaker against the dollar and the euro after a key measure of manufacturing and services activity fell more than expected in September.

Bitcoin rose.

Bonds:

Treasury yields fell and European government bonds rose.

The 10-year Bund yield rose after flash estimate purchasing managers data came in stronger than expected.

The 10-year OAT yield pared some of its falls after flash estimate purchasing managers data.

Energy:

Fitch Ratings expects the oil market to return to a substantial surplus in 2027.

While it expects oil prices to fall next year, Fitch raised its 2027 forecast for oil to $70 a barrel from $65 a barrel to reflect the longer-than-anticipated Middle East conflict and the implications for the geopolitical risk premium.

Analysts acknowledged a high level of uncertainty around these projections and assumed a deal between the U.S. and Iran being struck in the first quarter of 2027.

Metals:

Gold prices continued to trade in a tight range as the prospect of higher interest rates to curb persistent inflation weighed.

EMEA HEADLINES

Airtel Money Plans London Listing

African digital financial services platform Airtel Money plans to list existing shares on the London Stock Exchange but won't raise new capital.

Airtel Money, also known as Airtel Mobile Commerce, said Wednesday that the shares would be sold by existing shareholders and that upon admission it expects it will have a free float of at least 10%.

Business Surveys Point to Surprise Pickup for Eurozone

Business activity in the eurozone and India picked up in September, according to surveys released Wednesday, a sign that key parts of the global economy remain resilient in the face of high energy prices.

The global economy slowed only slightly in the second quarter, weathering the jump in energy costs triggered by the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

JD Sports' Profit Falls on Sector Challenges

JD Sports Fashion reported lower profit for its fiscal first half as the U.K. company continues to deal with a difficult market backdrop, including downbeat consumer sentiment.

The sneaker and fashion retailer said profit before tax and adjusted items-a company-preferred metric-dropped to 282 million pounds ($376.3 million) for the six months ended Aug. 1 from 351 million pounds a year earlier. The result came ahead of analysts' views of 279 million pounds, according to estimates provided by the company.

Diageo Names WPP Finance Chief Joanne Wilson as Next CFO

Diageo named WPP finance chief Joanne Wilson as its next chief financial officer, succeeding Nik Jhangiani.

The spirits giant said Wilson would join as CFO and assume roles on the board and executive committee at some point in 2027. Wilson currently is CFO at advertising group WPP, and previously held financial and commercial roles at drinks company Britvic.

GLOBAL NEWS

Global Economy Stronger Than Expected, But Threats Mount, OECD Says

Global economic growth is holding up better than expected in the face of high energy prices, but a lengthy conflict in the Middle East in combination with other headwinds could yet take a big toll on activity around the world, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday.

In a quarterly report on the global outlook, the Paris-based research body said global output is likely to grow at a faster pace than it forecast in June, even though oil prices have stayed high for longer than it had anticipated and inflation rates will therefore be more elevated.

AI Cycle Set to Offset Energy Hit for Asia Economies

The energy shock is unlikely to derail Asia-Pacific's economic expansion as artificial-intelligence-related investment powers the region's tech exports, S&P Global Ratings economists said.

S&P's baseline is for the region's gross domestic product to expand 4.6% this year, 0.2 percentage point higher than what it projected a quarter ago. It sees 2027 growth at 4.4%.

Trump Puts Legacy Ahead of Midterm Politics in Speech at U.N.

For weeks, President Trump has repeated the same message in a bid to drive his supporters to the polls in November: Pretend I'm on the ballot.

But in New York on Tuesday, the president offered a different assessment.

The Behind-the-Scenes Push to Get Xi a Red Carpet Welcome in America

Chinese leader Xi Jinping wanted his upcoming trip to the U.S. to be categorized as a "state visit," the highest tier of diplomatic pageantry. The designation would come with honor guards, a 21-gun salute and a formal welcome on the White House South Lawn.

When he arrives Wednesday, Xi will get his way, but reaching an agreement took weeks of work.

Japan's Leader Calls on U.N. to Drop 'Enemy State' Label

TOKYO-Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called on the United Nations to remove from its charter references to defeated World War II nations as "enemy states," a term recently weaponized by China and Russia to put pressure on Tokyo over its plans to ramp up spending on defense.

Her request, in a speech Tuesday to the United Nations General Assembly, followed a brief summit with President Trump on the sidelines of the U.N. gathering ahead of Trump hosting Chinese leader Xi Jinping for a state visit in Washington.

Write to nina.kienle@wsj.com

 

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