Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
3小時前

The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0754 GMT - Societe Generale's improved cost outlook will lead to consensus EPS upgrades, J.P. Morgan's Delphine Lee and Kian Abouhossein write. The French bank forecasts return on tangible equity between 13% and 14% by 2029, based on 3% annual revenue growth and lower costs. The financial targets were largely anticipated by consensus expectations, JPM says. However, a more ambitious revenue outlook for corporate and investment banking, as well as improved cost control, are the main surprises. The analysts note Societe Generale management's strong track record on reducing costs. As a result, JPM expects consensus earnings per share upgrades between 4% and 5%. Shares are up 3.9%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0724 GMT - Societe Generale provided a credible path to its higher 2029 profitability target, Jefferies' Joseph Dickerson and Theo Massing say. The French bank forecasts return on tangible equity between 13% and 14% by 2029, compared with the consensus of 12.6%. "The beauty of today's plan is that management clearly have visibility on the cost trajectory and have outlined a series of highly idiosyncratic actions on the cost base," Jefferies says. The 3% revenue growth target is a lowball, Jefferies says, but it is not driven by more corporate and investment banking growth from 2026. The improvement to profitability isn't linked to French bond yield spreads or politics, and is instead based on costs and growth in digital unit BoursoBank, Jefferies adds. Shares are up 4.9%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0634 GMT - The dollar rises as it continues to receive support from expectations for further interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve. The Fed voted unanimously to raise rates by 25 bps last week and officials pencilled in at least one more increase by year-end. "Although further U.S. rate hikes had already been largely priced in and longer-term inflation expectations had remained stable near the Fed's inflation target, there apparently remained some doubt as to whether the central bank would actually be willing to raise rates sufficiently quickly and decisively," Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyen says in a note. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 100.335 after reaching a seven-week high of 100.564 Friday.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0426 GMT - Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda appeared to deliberately mix hawkish and dovish remarks to maximize future policy flexibility at his press conference on Friday, Barclays economists say in a note. Their impression is that the BOJ doesn't appear to have a firm view on its timing for the next potential increase yet. Barclays expects the central bank to deliver additional increases in January and July next year to a terminal rate of 1.75%. After the terms of two hawkish board members expire in July 2027, Barclays believes Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration is likely to appoint new dovish members, strengthening the BOJ's overall bias toward maintaining the status quo. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

0412 GMT - Australia's unemployment rate likely edged higher to 4.6% from 4.5% in July, Moody's Analytics says in a note. Economic activity is softening, in part due to successive interest rate hikes that have curbed demand. Vacancies are drawing far more competition, and new job ads are trending lower, indicative of softening labour market conditions, it says. The unemployment data are due Thursday. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0335 GMT - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise its policy rate at every other meeting to a terminal rate of 2% by June 2027, Societe Generale's Jin Kenzaki says in a note. At Friday's press conference after the BOJ raised rates to 1.25%, Gov. Kazuo Ueda noted that with the underlying inflation approaching its 2% target, the central bank's next focus is whether it will become entrenched at that level, Kenzaki says. Ueda also stated that next year's spring wage negotiations between management and unions would be a crucial factor in making this assessment, Kenzaki says. Societe Generale anticipates that the solid momentum seen in wage negotiations will continue into next year, he says. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

0331 GMT - Central banks around the world are scrambling to meet inflation pressures head on and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be no different, says Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ. It now forecasts interest rate hikes by the RBNZ in October, February and March, which would take the official cash rate to a peak of 3.50%. The view adds two hikes to the forecast profile. Higher oil prices, a lower exchange rate, and a better starting point for the economy are driving the forecast, she says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0219 GMT - The impact of rising bond yields on Malaysian banks' debt investments remains manageable, says Maybank IB analyst Desmond Ch'ng in a note. Proactive treasury management could help cushion potential mark-to-market losses, while banks' strong capital positions should be more than sufficient to absorb any losses from debt securities measured at fair value through other comprehensive income, he reckons. The banks' capital management and dividend plans are expected to remain intact, with average dividend yields of about 5.6% in 2026, he adds. Maybank maintains a neutral rating on Malaysia's banking sector, and rates Public Bank, Hong Leong Bank, AMMB, Alliance Bank Malaysia and Hong Leong Financial at buy. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0217 GMT - Malaysia's near-term inflation pressures are expected to pick up as higher oil prices feed through to fuel-related costs, but headline inflation is likely to remain around 1.9%-2.0% in September, CIMB analysts Chew Khai Yen and Michelle Chia say in a note. The broader inflation outlook could remain benign, with softer core inflation pointing to contained underlying price pressures, they add. This supports CIMB's view that Bank Negara Malaysia will maintain the overnight policy rate at 2.75% at its November monetary policy meeting. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0041 GMT - Japanese bank stocks look relatively attractively valued, as the potential benefit of rising interest rates doesn't appear to be fully priced in, T. Rowe Price's Daniel Hurley says in a note. The U.S. asset manager expects the Bank of Japan to continue to tighten, which will likely present a stock-selection opportunity, the portfolio specialist for Japanese equity strategy says. While T. Rowe Price remains constructive on the long-term potential of artificial intelligence, growth expectations are already reflected to a significant extent in the valuations of many AI stocks, the U.S. asset manager says. Improving corporate governance, stronger capital discipline, dividends and share buybacks can also support companies even where underlying earnings growth is relatively modest, it says. Japan's stock market is closed for holidays Monday through Wednesday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

2351 GMT - Australian stocks look set to resume their recent slide in early trade, adding to losses compiled across three consecutive weekly declines. ASX futures are down by almost 0.7% ahead of Monday's session, suggesting that the S&P/ASX 200 will extend the 3.8% decline recorded so far in September. Investors are waiting on next week's Reserve Bank meeting, which is expected to end with an interest-rate increase and hawkish commentary on the potential for further increases. Ahead of Monday's open, Perpetual rejected EQT AB's best and final takeover proposal, Ingenia rejected Warburg Pincus's improved offer, and Telix Pharmaceuticals agreed to buy isotope supplier ITM for up to US$2.35 billion. Resolute Mining downgraded its 2026 gold production and cost guidance on challenges in Mali.

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