The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1119 ET - President Trump's plan to buy Belarus potash and circumvent Canadian imports may not be as easy or as viable as he makes it seem. According to a Scotiabank report, analyst Ben Isaacson says the proposal lacks economic logic. Canada currently supplies roughly 80% of U.S. potash needs, benefiting from a $75-a-ton freight advantage over Belarus when delivering to the American Midwest. Logistics is another problem. Without port access through Lithuania, "it's difficult to see how Belarus could earn a higher netback selling into the U.S. vs. Brazil or China," and "certainly with no room for Belarus to accept a "substantially" lower price," Isaacson says. Adding to the confusion, Trump's Truth Social post came just hours after Belarusian President Lukashenko stated he "had no potash available to offer the west," Isaacson says. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1054 ET - CBOT grain futures are mixed as traders focus on President Trump's address to the United Nations, as well as a summit between Trump and Chinese president Xi being hosted at the White House later this week. Traders are tentative, expecting little in the way of concrete results from these meetings, says Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. "The general attitude for the Chinese summit meeting on Thursday is that no big deals will be announced, with everyone watching what happens with tariffs," says Sernatinger. Most-active corn is down 0.4%, soybeans rise 0.1%, and wheat falls 0.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1053 ET - Most-active lean hog futures on the CME are up 2.2% ahead of Thursday's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Analysts expect it will show smaller hog inventories. In the meantime, short-covering appears to be the prime daily driver of hog futures, says ADM Investor Services in a note. "The heavy managed money short position encouraged some short covering yesterday but unless prices can follow through with a strong performance today, there is little reason to believe the downtrend is over," says the firm. Live cattle futures are down 0.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1045 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are recovering much of yesterday's losses as softening production readings and a pickup in LNG feedgas help offset declining weather-driven demand. "The arrival of the shoulder season, fading weather support, and strengthening injections are muzzling attempted upside runs from earlier in September," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. A still hot Texas and strong physical market is sustaining support for now, but rising storage injections, and a weak fundamental winter outlook "suggest November may face challenges when it becomes the Nymex front-month contract next week," Rubin adds. The October contract is up 1.8% at $2.887/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1015 ET - Oil prices continue to trade lower, with Brent crude below $100 a barrel on hopes for improved Gulf supply. The global oil benchmark is down 1% at $99.34 a barrel, while front-month WTI futures fall 1% to $94.80 a barrel. "The decline reflects market expectations of increased oil supply," says Giovanni Staunovo from UBS. "Time will tell whether those expectations prove overly optimistic." Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu could restart within a couple of days as state-controlled Aramco runs tests on its East-West pipeline, The Wall Street Journal reported earlier on Tuesday. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0954 ET - The USDA says the pace of early harvesting in the U.S. is exceeding that of this time last year, as well as the 5-year average pace. The government says corn is 13% harvested, while soybeans are 12% complete--with corn 3 points ahead of this time last year, while soybeans are 4 points ahead of last year's pace. Rainfall this week may slow down harvest progress, says Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor in a note-- although the central plains should dry out later this week. Most-active corn is down 0.5%, soybeans drop 0.4%, and wheat is off 1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0946 ET - Bank of America raises its Brent price estimates citing the "exceptionally large supply disruption," that has reduced crude and refined-product availability. "Continued skirmishes into year-end are now our most likely scenario," Francisco Blanch of BofA Global Research says in a note. "Although alternative routes and escorted Hormuz shipments have mitigated some of the shortfall, damaged infrastructure and rising geopolitical tensions make rapid normalization unlikely." BofA expects Brent to average $95 a barrel in 2H26, up from the previous estimate of $83 a barrel, and raises its estimate for 2027 to $80 from $75 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0916 ET - Reports of a conditional Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has oil falling for a fifth consecutive session, with Brent trading under $100 a barrel. The decline reflects optimism for a return to U.S.-Iran talks, although "we remain stuck in the gray state represented by a formula of neither peace nor war," says Samer Hasn of XS.com in a note. "Unless we see a serious return to negotiations between Iran and the United States involving mutual concessions, escalation prospects may remain extremely high, potentially keeping crude prices elevated for an extended period." Most active WTI is down 2% at $90.50 a barrel and Brent falls 1.4% to $98.95 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0653 ET - European utilities' earnings will benefit from higher-for-longer natural gas prices on the continent, Bank of America analysts write. Continuing disruption in Qatar, increased demand in Asia and low storage levels in Europe will combine to keep benchmark European natural gas prices at 55 euros a megawatt hour in 2027, the analysts say. Markets are underestimating the impact on utilities' companies EPS by around 6%-9%, the analysts say. European governments could impose lower power price caps, but levels will likely be above prices set in the 2022 energy crisis, the analysts say. SSE and RWE are both likely to deliver strong results in November, they say. A basket of European utilities stocks rise by 0.1%. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0640 ET - Palm oil prices closed lower as weaker energy prices reduced support from the broader commodity complex, says Abdul Hameed, director of sales at Pakistan-based Manzoor Trading. Near-term fundamentals also remain bearish, with sluggish exports, strong production and rising inventories weighing on sentiment, he adds. Expectations that Malaysian palm oil stocks could exceed 3.0 million tons by the end of September are adding further pressure, he says. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery fell 47 ringgit to 4,810 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0636 ET - European mining companies' potential to benefit from the build out in artificial-intelligence capacity is underappreciated, UBS strategists Gerry Fowler and Sutanya Chedda write. Basic materials companies that supply the equipment and metals needed to build AI capacity are showing strong buy signals when analyzing market trends, earnings, valuation and sentiment, the strategists say. Copper and iron ore miner Anglo American is an especially clear example of mining's importance for industrial capacity expansion, they say. The strategists upgrade mining to a favored sector. A basket of European basic resources stocks rises 1.4%. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0613 ET - Brent crude falls below $100 a barrel on hopes for a diplomatic push to end the U.S.-Iran war. The global oil benchmark is down 1.2% to $99.11 a barrel, while the U.S. oil gauge WTI is down 2.7% to $93.20 a barrel after Japan's Kyodo News reported that Iran has proposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the American blockade is lifted. "The report triggered fresh selling, as traders read it as a fresh de-escalation signal ahead of this week's U.N. General Assembly," says Kaynat Chainwala from Kotak Securities. "Until a concrete outcome emerges from this week's meetings, crude's risk premium looks vulnerable to further unwinding, though stalled talks could just as quickly reverse the move."