TradingKey - As memory prices continue to rise, market concerns over shortages are intensifying. Jason Chen, chairman of PC and IT hardware giant Acer, offered a starkly contrasting assessment of the current price-hike narrative in the memory market. He stated frankly that repeated claims by the top three memory suppliers—Samsung, SK Hynix (SKHY), and Micron Technology (MU)—that "price increases will continue until 2027" are not factual, but rather a way to signal one another through public statements under antitrust regulations that prohibit manufacturers from directly coordinating prices. "Anyone who has been through this cycle will understand that this is actually signaling."

Chen explained that the top three memory suppliers naturally want to maintain high gross margins, "keeping them in the 80% range for as long as possible," which is why they keep making public assertions that "prices will not drop before a certain year," repeating it over and over again. However, mainland Chinese manufacturers have a completely different strategy—with massive production capacity and more aggressive pricing, they are classic "price disruptors" whose goal is to build up substantial capacity. In his view, this means there is no longer a foundation for prices to continue a sustained, one-sided upward trend.

He similarly disagreed with the notion of "demand exceeding supply." "How could there be a continuous shortage? Mainland Chinese capacity keeps coming online, so there is no shortage issue." He revealed that supplies from mainland Chinese memory manufacturers have begun extending to non-mainland brands, with some vendors already securing supply. He also pointed out the price pattern for components: components are usually the first to rise and the first to fall, and those currently holding inventory will be the first to talk up the market, telling you all along that "prices will rise, rise, and keep rising."

Regarding specific product segments, he expects increased supply of memory components such as DDR4 and DDR5, with no risk of shortages, while products like DDR5X remain relatively tight but have smaller overall demand. Acer's overall memory inventory remains at a high level, while processors face no shortage at all. He described current contract prices as fluctuating at elevated levels, noting that "prices fluctuate somewhat chaotically, with some quoting high and others quoting low." Even Apple has compromised and accepted Samsung's contract price hikes—in his view, manufacturers can only signal to each other through public statements, which industry insiders naturally understand.

On the price trajectory, Chen expects there may still be room for price increases in the first quarter of 2027, but the market is currently in a phase of price confusion, with price hikes gradually narrowing. Based on the ramp-up schedule of new semiconductor capacity, he speculates component prices could peak around mid-2027, enter a stabilization period, and only then offer a chance to observe whether they might adjust downward in the second half of the year. "However, no one knows when the turning point will come," he admitted, adding that a drop in PC retail prices is currently just a "hope."

He further criticized component suppliers for turning price hikes into a trend, with a flood of suppliers visiting to announce price increases across a chain of components from PCBs and fiberglass cloth to memory. He concluded that such chain-reaction price hikes will ultimately push up inflation, forcing central banks to raise interest rates, adding, "This is by no means a normal phenomenon."

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