Micron Technology's (MU) fundamentals keep improving as demand for its memory chips continues to outpace supply into 2027, shifting investor focus toward the durability of that demand and the company's capital-return plans, UBS Securities said Wednesday in a report.

Micron's long-term supply agreements are starting to limit upside to earnings, making the strength and longevity of demand more important than near-term beats, the report said.

UBS does not expect major new buyback disclosures on Micron's upcoming call, even as CHIPS Act-related repurchase limits lift Dec. 9, saying Micron is unlikely to move ahead of that date. UBS sees quarterly buybacks starting near $20 billion in fiscal Q2 2027 and ramping up to $40 billion to $50 billion per quarter.

Micron is shipping nearly all the computer memory it can make, with demand for server-grade memory up about 80% from last year and demand for solid-state storage chips potentially more than doubling in 2027, the report said. That imbalance suggests Micron's memory chips will remain in short supply through at least mid-2028, UBS said.

The newest high-performance AI memory is becoming much more expensive than standard server memory, widening the price gap between the two, the report said.

UBS maintained its buy rating on Micron stock with a $1,625 price target.

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