Saudi Recession Remains Largely an Oil-Volume Shock

Dow Jones
09/28

1508 GMT -- Saudi Arabia's recession remains overwhelmingly an oil-volume shock, with the broader economy showing relative resilience, Citi says. GDP contracted 4.8% on quarter in the second quarter after falling 1.4% in the first, but oil activity plunged 21.6% while non-oil activity slipped just 0.4%. Non-oil activity was still up 0.9% on year, and the kingdom's PMI rose to 53.8 in August, its fifth consecutive month in expansion territory. Citi expects overall GDP to contract 2.4% this year, but says the economy's recovery depends critically on restoring crude production and securing export routes. The budget is less vulnerable to prolonged export disruption than the broader economy, as higher oil prices can offset lost revenue from lower volumes even as reduced production weighs on GDP, Citi says.

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