Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
09/30

The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0724 ET - A merger between RHI Magnesita and Vesuvius is strategically sound, but could face competition issues, RBC Capital Markets analysts write. Iron foundries company Vesuvius said it received an offer approach worth 549 pence a share on Aug. 27 that the board was considering. It follows a number of previous approaches over the past year. RBC says the companies would likely need to offer asset sales to get competition approvals. "If the acquisition were to clear at the current level we would see this as attractive," the analysts say. RBC has a sector perform rating on RHI and 28.50 pounds target price. RHI shares are down 3% at 27.40 pounds. Vesuvius shares are up 27% at 475 pence. (ian.walker@wsj.com)

0508 ET - Short-term price gains in gold and silver will likely be limited as long as the Federal Reserve "remains in inflation-fighting mode," Julius Baer's Carsten Menke writes. Rising U.S. bond yields have pressured the precious metals' prices, which Menke says is due to the real-yield component. This likely reflects the U.S. economy's strength, which could fuel fears of further Fed rate hikes, says the next generation research head. Still, precious metals' decline could be limited, as he expects the Fed to raise rates less frequently than currently priced into money markets. A higher rate environment typically weighs on nonyielding assets like gold. Spot gold rises 0.7% to $4,140.47 a troy ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0116 ET - UBS upgrades its long-term forecast on iron ore to US$93/metric ton, from US$85/ton before. As a result, the bank raises share-price targets on miners including BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale and Fortescue. Its long-term price forecast--which is 12% above consensus--reflects a new phase for iron-ore demand, as China pivots to manufacturing and exports from construction, and steel demand from the Global South rises, UBS says. "The rise of the Global South and China's manufacturing [and] export industries should more than offset China's construction steel demand decline, resulting in global steel demand growing through 2035," it says. UBS raises its target on BHP to A$61/share from A$59/share prior. Its target on Rio Tinto increases to A$178/share from A$177/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0014 ET - The market underappreciates Champion Iron's premium-grade products, and the potential for improved premiums as its direct reduction pellet feed facility ramps up, UBS says. The bank initiates coverage of the stock with a buy rating and target price of 4.15 Australian dollars. "For CIA, we see grade rather than outright iron ore price as the key differentiator," it says. "Growing demand for premium steelmaking inputs, declining seaborne ore quality, and increasing blending requirements support structurally attractive economics for ultra high-grade iron ore producers." Shares are up 0.7% at A$3.08. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2348 ET - Perenti Global's latest contract wins don't move the dial for the mining services provider's bulls at Jefferies. ASX-listed Perenti's multiple new contracts across its five drilling businesses are expected to generate about 185 million Australian dollars in FY 2027 revenue, but analysts John Campbell and William Richardson say their forecasts already implicitly required such wins. They say in a note to clients that Perenti's announcement of the contracts didn't prompt it to upgrade guidance. They raise their forecast for FY 2027 drilling revenue growth to 14% from 13%, but leave margin expectations unchanged. Jefferies keeps a buy rating on the stock with a target price of A$2.80. Shares are up 3.7% at A$2.23. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2152 ET - At first glance, Pantoro Gold's FY 2026 fiscal results are better than expected, says MA Moelis Australia. It attributes the beat to significantly lower exploration expenditure and a larger reversal of share-based payments, among other things. The company's annual mineral resource and ore reserve update is positive, with resources and reserves rising after depletion, it says. MA says the annual result "reinforced PNR's cash-generating potential." It says "the early FY27 production update is more encouraging, however, sustained delivery is still required to rebuild credibility." MA has a buy rating and 3.65 Australian dollar target on the stock. Shares are up 2.1% at A$2.91.

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