The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0516 GMT - UBS upgrades its long-term forecast on iron ore to US$93/metric ton, from US$85/ton before. As a result, the bank raises share-price targets on miners including BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale and Fortescue. Its long-term price forecast--which is 12% above consensus--reflects a new phase for iron-ore demand, as China pivots to manufacturing and exports from construction, and steel demand from the Global South rises, UBS says. "The rise of the Global South and China's manufacturing [and] export industries should more than offset China's construction steel demand decline, resulting in global steel demand growing through 2035," it says. UBS raises its target on BHP to A$61/share from A$59/share prior. Its target on Rio Tinto increases to A$178/share from A$177/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0414 GMT - The market underappreciates Champion Iron's premium-grade products, and the potential for improved premiums as its direct reduction pellet feed facility ramps up, UBS says. The bank initiates coverage of the stock with a buy rating and target price of 4.15 Australian dollars. "For CIA, we see grade rather than outright iron ore price as the key differentiator," it says. "Growing demand for premium steelmaking inputs, declining seaborne ore quality, and increasing blending requirements support structurally attractive economics for ultra high-grade iron ore producers." Shares are up 0.7% at A$3.08. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0348 GMT - Perenti Global's latest contract wins don't move the dial for the mining services provider's bulls at Jefferies. ASX-listed Perenti's multiple new contracts across its five drilling businesses are expected to generate about 185 million Australian dollars in FY 2027 revenue, but analysts John Campbell and William Richardson say their forecasts already implicitly required such wins. They say in a note to clients that Perenti's announcement of the contracts didn't prompt it to upgrade guidance. They raise their forecast for FY 2027 drilling revenue growth to 14% from 13%, but leave margin expectations unchanged. Jefferies keeps a buy rating on the stock with a target price of A$2.80. Shares are up 3.7% at A$2.23. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0152 GMT - At first glance, Pantoro Gold's FY 2026 fiscal results are better than expected, says MA Moelis Australia. It attributes the beat to significantly lower exploration expenditure and a larger reversal of share-based payments, among other things. The company's annual mineral resource and ore reserve update is positive, with resources and reserves rising after depletion, it says. MA says the annual result "reinforced PNR's cash-generating potential." It says "the early FY27 production update is more encouraging, however, sustained delivery is still required to rebuild credibility." MA has a buy rating and 3.65 Australian dollar target on the stock. Shares are up 2.1% at A$2.91. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

1424 GMT - Canadian miners are the main drag on the TSX as the price of gold tumbles to seven-week low. Higher fuel costs raise concerns of another U.S. Fed rate hike to temper inflation, driving down the price precious metals while the price of crude rises. Gold falls 3.1% to $4,188 an ounce and silver is down 4.2% to around $62 an ounce. Among the biggest decliners of the session were AbraSilver Resources, Aris Mining, and K92 Mining as well as larger players in the space such as Agnico Eagle, Lundin Gold and Eldorado Gold. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1402 GMT - Glencore is set to benefit from its upcoming listing on the Australian stock exchange on Oct. 14, RBC Capital Markets analyst Ben Davis writes. "The listing is intended to improve Glencore's profile with Australian investors, broaden its shareholder base, improve trading liquidity and enhance corporate financial flexibility," the analyst says. Davis adds the move could also be a precursor to another merger attempt with Rio Tinto after the failed tie-up in February. RBC has an outperform rating on the stock and a 660 pence price target. Shares are down 1.4% at 553.20 pence. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)

1035 GMT - A merger between BASF and Evonik would need good execution, AlphaValue's Akash Nandy says, after German chemicals giant BASF last week revealed it had made an overture to its smaller rival. The appeal of such a tie-up lies in portfolio synergies, Nandy says. "A broader portfolio, overlapping customers and a single corporate cost base should sharpen BASF's position against global competition," he says. But given the scale of the two companies, any upside would hinge on execution, Nandy cautions. "On balance, we take a positive view, helped by management's delivery record in recent years," he adds. (((joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)))

1005 GMT - Palm oil ended lower in Asia. Malaysia's palm oil exports during the Sept. 1-25 period are estimated to be down 24% on month. Prices were likely weighed by Malaysia's sluggish export data and expectations of higher tropical oil output, Kenanga Futures analysts said in a note. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery closed 9 ringgit lower at 4,663 ringgit a ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0952 GMT - There is a clear rationale for a tie-up between chemicals makers BASF and Evonik, Citi analysts write in a note. Germany's BASF last week said it made an opening move for its smaller rival, a merger that would be consistent with BASF's strategy to shore up its core businesses, Citi says. "In our view, it has the potential to create meaningful value given Evonik's complementary portfolio and relatively undemanding valuation," the bank argues, noting the attractiveness of consolidation in Europe's chemicals business. Still, investor concerns around integration and higher exposure to Germany are valid, the analysts say. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

0930 GMT - BASF might do better to look at other targets than Evonik, JPMorgan's Chetan Udeshi writes. The German chemicals group said last week it had approached its smaller rival Evonik over a takeover, without naming a price. Consolidation is one of the few credible routes for players in the chemicals industry to boost their competitiveness and returns, Udeshi says. But there are likely better fits for BASF than Evonik, he adds, noting the overlap between the two companies' product portfolios. While a cash deal would likely offer a lift to BASF's earnings, it would risk stretching the company's balance sheet, Udeshi says. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

0854 GMT - A tie-up between BASF and Evonik could prove complicated, analysts at Bernstein write in a note. German chemicals giant BASF said last week it had opened talks with its smaller rival, noting its interest in acquisitions that fuel growth. "There is a price / synergy level where the logic for this transaction could be compelling," Bernstein says. But a takeover of Evonik would skew BASF's assets further toward Europe and a combined group would likely trade at a lower multiple than BASF alone, the brokerage estimates. "We have our reservations about a combined BASF-Evonik equity story, as we believe BASF can extract substantial value from their existing assets and there is no guarantee a transaction goes ahead," Bernstein says.