North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Mostly Drop Ahead of Crucial Inflation Data

Dow Jones
09/29

Stock futures were mostly lower Tuesday.

Oil prices are down, reversing earlier gains, amid the continued stalemate in talks between the U.S. and Iran.

Meanwhile, the selloff in Treasurys showed no signs of easing. "The selloff mainly seems to reflect changes in near-term expectations," Capital Economics said.

For the day ahead, August job openings data is the major macro release, while Sam Altman will speak at OpenAI DevDay in San Francisco.

Stocks to Watch

Navitas Semiconductor got an Army grant to develop semiconductor technology. The stock gained 14%.

Sangoma Technologies is set to be acquired by BRC in a deal that values the company at $204 million. Shares climbed 39%.

Summit Therapeutics is getting a $2 billion investment from AstraZeneca. The stock rose 17%.

Watch For:

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices for July; U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September; Canada GDP for July

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- Google Appeals EU Requests on Android AI Access, Search Data Sharing

- Shell to Double Production Capacity at LNG Canada

- Car Dealers Are Desperate for New Models but There's an Industrywide Drought

MARKET WRAPS Forex:

The dollar appreciated as oil prices rose.

Bitcoin recovered only marginally after reaching a one-week low on Monday.

The euro fell to a three-month low against the dollar as markets price in a higher probability that the Fed will raise interest rates further.

Bonds:

Treasury yields rose but remained slightly below the fresh multiyear peaks reached Monday.

Energy:

Oil prices rose as a lack of progress in U.S.-Iran talks outweighed signs of recovery in Gulf exports.

Metals:

Gold

Gold prices edged higher in early tading, while it's near-term bias remained downward, based on the daily chart.

Silver

Silver remained under pressure after Monday's selloff.

Copper

Copper fell in early European trading.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

OpenAI Scraps Release of New AI Model Over Safety Concerns

OpenAI says it is scrapping the release of its next-generation AI model over safety concerns that researchers raised during internal testing, in one of the clearest signs so far that agent misbehavior could stymie the industry's rapid progression.

The move follows a summer punctuated by reports of artificial-intelligence systems industrywide going rogue, and marks a rare case of a major AI developer ditching a new release because of safety concerns.

Novo Inks Weight-Loss Licensing Deal With Hengrui Pharma

Novo Nordisk has signed a licensing deal for a weight-loss treatment being developed by Hengrui Pharma that could be worth up to $2.6 billion.

The Danish drugmaker will pay China-based Hengrui $300 million upfront, with the rest of the potential deal value tied to milestones.

Hapag-Lloyd Raises Guidance Again on Strong Demand, Freight Rates

Hapag-Lloyd raised its full-year earnings guidance again as it continues to see strong market demand and positive developments in spot freight rates.

The German shipping company said Tuesday that it now expects group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization between $3.9 billion and $4 billion, up from a previous estimate of $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion.

U.S., European Government-Bond Yields Fall

U.S. Treasury yields reversed course and declined in early European trade, while eurozone government bond yields also fell as the rise in oil prices slowed slightly.

Still, Treasury yields remained close to Monday's multiyear peaks as the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran surrounding the terms of reopening the Strait of Hormuz continued, even as more tankers are crossing the waterway.

A Simple Way to Take Advantage of Higher Yields

Nobody likes to catch falling knives, as the old Wall Street saying goes. Except that with shorter-term bonds, at least you're wearing some protective gear.

Traders seem to be struggling to find the bottom for Treasurys. The past week saw yields on the 10-year note surge beyond previous high-water marks, first 5%, then 5.1% and even 5.2%. The move was also accompanied by a jump in bond volatility, which had still been subdued until the last few sessions. This is a sign that markets are becoming more jumpy.

Middle East Oil Exports Rebound as Iran's Chokehold on Hormuz Breaks Down

DUBAI-Iran's ability to choke off oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz-and use that as leverage in talks with the U.S.-is breaking down, raising the risk it will resort to military escalation to bolster its position.

The erosion of Iran's position comes as the U.S. Navy and Gulf oil producers have become better at fending off or evading Iranian attacks, allowing more tankers to cross the strait.

RFK Jr.'s Push to Revamp American Food Runs Into White House Resistance

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s efforts to revamp America's food system have hit their biggest hurdle yet: the White House.

Two years ago, the Trump campaign joined forces with Kennedy, embracing his ambition to wage war on chronic disease. But concerns about whether his ideas on food are even feasible have prompted clashes within the administration, casting uncertainty over a once-potent political agenda that drew support from millions of voters.

Treasury Takes Aim at Tax-Avoiding Investment Strategies

The Treasury Department issued its first formal warning shot against some increasingly popular tax-reducing investment strategies, cautioning against "potentially abusive" moves designed to minimize tax bills.

The government moved Monday to limit one strategy involving exchange-traded funds and flagged several others as questionable. The actions followed officials' comments earlier this year expressing concern about the proliferation of tax-motivated investing techniques.

New York Prosecutor Reopens Investigation Into Cornell Rape Allegations

New York prosecutors have reopened an investigation into an alleged gang rape of a former Cornell University student after her lawyer filed a civil lawsuit earlier this month saying the school failed to protect her.

Tompkins County District Attorney Matthew Van Houten said Monday that his office would present the case against seven fraternity members to a grand jury for potential criminal charges in the alleged 2024 sexual assault.

Write to nina.kienle@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA Earnings:

Nothing major scheduled.

Economic Indicators (ET):

0830 Jul GDP Stocks to Watch:

BRC Group Holdings Agrees to Acquire Sangoma Technologies Corp; Transaction Values Sangoma at an Enterprise Value of Approximately $204M; Sangoma Hldrs Will Receive $4.925 in Cash and 0.04767 of a BRC Shr for Each Sangoma Shr Held

Deterra Royalties Acquires A Third-Party Royalty on Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz Copper Project; Existing 1.75% Net Smelter Return Royalty Covers Substantial Portion of Project; Has Agreed With Ivanhoe to Update, Modernize Royalty; Royalty Rate To Be 1.68% Till Sixth Anniversary of Commercial Production; Royalty Rate Reduces to 1.57% After Sixth Anniversary of Commercial Production; Royalty Acquired For $74.15 Million

Orion Digital Regained Compliance With Nasdaq's Minimum Bid Price Requirement

Sangoma Technologies 4Q Net Loss $72.5M; 4Q Adj EBITDA $6.5M; 4Q Gross Profit $32.3M; 4Q Loss/Shr $2.19; 4Q Operating Expenses $38.5M; 4Q Revenue $49.8M; FactSet Est. $51.3M; 4Q Revenue Under Estimates; Enters Into Definitive Agreement To Be Acquired By BRC Group Holdings, Inc.; Transaction That Values Sangoma at an Enterprise Value of Approximately $204M

Expected Major Events for Tuesday 00:30/JPN: Aug Detailed Import & Export Statistics

05:00/JPN: Jul Indexes of Business Conditions - Revision

06:45/FRA: Aug Housing starts

08:00/ITA: Jul Industrial turnover

08:30/UK: Aug Money and Credit - Lending to Individuals, Lending to Businesses, Broad Money and Credit

08:30/UK: Aug Monetary & Financial Statistics

08:30/UK: Aug Bank of England effective interest rates

08:59/JPN: Sep Monthly Economic Report

09:00/ITA: Aug PPI

12:30/CAN: Jul GDP

12:55/US: 09/26 Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

13:00/US: Jul U.S. Monthly House Price Index

13:00/US: Jul S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices

14:00/US: Sep Consumer Confidence Index

14:00/US: Aug Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

17:59/UK: REC JobsOutlook survey

19:00/US: Aug Agricultural Prices

20:30/US: API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

23:01/UK: Aug UK monthly automotive manufacturing figures

23:01/UK: Aug Zoopla House Price Index

23:50/JPN: Aug Preliminary Retail Sales

23:50/JPN: Aug Preliminary Industrial Production

All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.

Expected Earnings for Tuesday AAR Corp (AIR) is expected to report $1.15 for 1Q.

CarMax Inc $(KMX)$ is expected to report $0.80 for 2Q.

Carnival Corp Ltd (CCL) is expected to report for 3Q.

Concentrix Corp (CNXC) is expected to report $0.78 for 3Q.

Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) is expected to report for 4Q.

Vicarious Surgical Inc (RBOT) is expected to report for 2Q.

Wins Finance Holdings Inc (WINSF) is expected to report for Interim.

ZenaTech Inc $(ZENA)$ is expected to report for 2Q.

Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.

ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS Acuity Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by William Blair

Atlas Energy Solutions Raised to Equal-Weight From Underweight by Barclays

BlackLine Cut to Underperform From Neutral by DA Davidson

CF Industries Raised to Neutral From Sell by Rothschild & Co

First Solar Raised to Sector Weight From Underweight by Keybanc

Liberty Energy Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Barclays

Lifecore Biomedical Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by William Blair

Manhattan Associates Cut to Neutral From Buy by DA Davidson

Park Hotels & Resorts Raised to Strong Buy From Market Perform by Raymond James

Pegasystems Cut to Neutral From Buy by DA Davidson

PepsiCo Cut to Hold From Buy by Deutsche Bank

RLJ Lodging Trust Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by Raymond James

Roblox Cut to Underperform From Hold by Jefferies

Royal Caribbean Group Raised to Buy From Hold by Deutsche Bank

Sweetgreen Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Wells Fargo

Teleflex Raised to Buy From Neutral by B of A Securities

UiPath Cut to Underperform From Neutral by DA Davidson

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

 

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