The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0935 ET - ING Groep could distribute more to shareholders than anticipated with another strong quarterly performance expected, J.P. Morgan's Delphine Lee and Kian Abouhossein say. JPM raises its earnings per share guidance for ING by 1%, 2% and 4% for 2026, 2027 and 2028 respectively, mostly due to rates staying higher for longer. The Dutch bank's current fee guidance is also conservative due to the supportive market environment and good growth in primary customers, the analysts add. JPM expects ING to announce a 1.5 billion euro share buyback and 500 million euro cash dividend for the third quarter, higher than the company consensus of 1.25 billion euros and 250 million euros respectively. JPM places ING on positive catalyst watch and raises the target price to 38.30 euros from 36.30 euros. Shares are up 0.3% at 30.35 euros. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0721 ET - Close Brothers Group reported some progress on its fiscal 2026 strategy, with a positive surprise on costs, UBS analysts Sanjena Dadawala and Jason Napier write. Cost savings in the fiscal year to the end of July accelerated, the analysts note. Loan growth is key to the merchant bank's recovery, they add, with fiscal 2027 guidance for between 5% and 10% underlying loan growth. UBS expects return on tangible equity to recover slightly in fiscal 2027, with further growth in fiscal 2028 to around 8.5%. "We think it takes the firm 1-2 years more to reach double digits but valuations do not reflect even that," the analysts say. Shares are down 0.5%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0639 ET - Liontrust Asset Management's deal to buy Hawksmoor Investment Management's fund management and model portfolio services assets is strategically advantageous, Cavendish's Jens Ehrenberg writes. Cavendish raises its current-year earnings per share forecast by around 2% following the acquisition. It expects upgrades between 8.2% and 8.5% in the outer years. The deal adds a high-quality product that can benefit from Liontrust's distribution capabilities, the analyst notes. Cavendish raises Liontrust's target price to 450 pence from 436 pence and reiterates a buy recommendation. Shares are up 0.7% at 295.50 pence. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0613 ET - Wise Group seems to have done well in establishing itself among U.S. investors, J.P. Morgan's Craig McDowell and Sandeep Deshpande say. The analysts had previously been concerned that the fintech company would struggle to gain traction in the U.S. "We remain very optimistic on the long-term opportunity for Wise, with the view that the business has the potential to be a durable earnings compounder with attractive long-term earnings power," JPM says. However, there is a lack of confidence on the near and medium-term outlook, as well as high near-term multiples, the analysts note. This could prompt investor caution, JPM adds. Shares are up 1.9%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0549 ET - Julius Baer Gruppe's new buyback program is another positive signal, J.P. Morgan's Amit Ranjan and Kian Abouhossein write. The announcement of an up to 600 million Swiss franc ($722.1 million) buyback by the Swiss bank, which will be completed within one year, adds to recent news of the end of enforcement proceedings by the Swiss regulator. JPM says the new target CET1 capital ratio of 15% is intended to give more confidence to stakeholders, citing a meeting with Chief Executive Officer Stefan Bollinger and Chief Financial Officer Peter Burrill. The revised dividend payout range also provides more flexibility, JPM notes. Shares are up 2.5%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0529 ET - Partners Group Holding's restructuring of its Global Value SICAV evergreen private capital fund brings a fresh approach to recent challenges, Barclays analysts write. The restructuring moves to an umbrella fund with two sub-portfolios, split across compounding and distributing portfolios. This should give investors more flexibility in how they allocate to private equity over time, Barclays says. The fund's high redemption requests have been one of the sources of pressure on Partners Group's share price, the analysts note. However, there is no change to the company's guidance on sales and redemptions from the fund restructuring, Barclays notes. Shares are up 0.5%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0522 ET - Hong Kong stocks ended lower, weighed by financial stocks. Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index ended 2.6% lower at 23972.29, marking its largest daily-percentage loss since March. HSBC Holdings ended 5.4% lower amid fears that the U.K. will raise taxes on the banking industry. Analysts reckon that gains in Asian government bond yields, after 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit multiyear highs earlier this week, also weighed on Hong Kong's financial stocks. Meanwhile, the closure of the city's market Thursday for a holiday likely exacerbated Friday's losses. The absence of Chinese buyers, as mainland China's markets are shut for the Golden Week holiday until Oct. 8, could also be a factor. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0356 ET - IG Group Holdings' lower 2026 guidance is driven by lower over-the-counter income retention and a weaker market backdrop, RBC Capital Markets' Ben Bathurst says. The online trading platform's new 2026 revenue guidance suggests earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization between 490 million and 500 million pounds, RBC says, which would be 16% lower than the Canadian bank's estimates. "A lower than expected revenue retention rate of 70% for OTC business also looks to have been a material driver of the miss, but we note revenues would have been below our expectations irrespective of this, as there was an implicit 16% miss on non OTC revenues," the analyst adds. The lower retention follows a recent decision to hedge less of the OTC book, RBC added. Shares are down 22%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0311 ET - Bitcoin stays elevated after reaching a one-week high earlier as U.S. interest-rate rise expectations ease, boosting risky assets. Federal Reserve governor Philip Jefferson said the Fed might need more time to assess the direction of the economy before making any additional policy adjustments. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report at 1230 GMT will be closely monitored for clues on future policy. Stronger-than-expected jobs data could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, potentially weakening bitcoin, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. "Softer labor data could reduce expectations for further tightening, weaken yields and improve the environment for renewed [bitcoin] exchange traded fund inflows." Bitcoin rises 1.6% after reaching as high as $86,807 earlier, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0309 ET - Commerzbank doesn't have enough share price upside to compensate for higher risks and less visibility from UniCredit's plans for the German bank, RBC Capital Markets' Anke Reingen and Sherry Lin write. The acquisition of UniCredit's German unit HVB by Commerzbank would be a "sensible move", RBC says, with a potential return on investment of 11% by 2030. Commerzbank's CEO has said the lender could potentially buy HVB in shares as one of several options to increase UC's holding in Commerzbank. However, execution risks in this complex setup are heavily concentrated in Commerzbank. As a result, lower earnings visibility and higher cost of equity have led RBC to cut its price target on Commerzbank stock to 40 euros from 43 euros. RBC lowers its recommendation to sector perform from outperform. Commerzbank shares closed at 39.40 euros on Thursday. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

2221 ET - Indonesia's near-term market outlook could be supported by three market-friendly developments, although key overhangs remain, BofA analysts Kai Wei Ang and Rahul Bajoria say in a note. Two technocratic deputy finance ministers were appointed, easing concerns over policy continuity following the cabinet reshuffle, they say. September headline inflation and core inflation were both on track with Bank Indonesia's end-2026 forecasts. The trade surplus also rebounded to $3.5 billion in August from $121.9 million in July and is expected to remain above $1 billion in coming months, they say. However, the analysts continues to monitor potential updates from credit-rating agencies and MSCI-related developments. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

1858 ET [Dow Jones]--One of the best starts to a hurricane season in North America prompts Macquarie to upgrade QBE Insurance to outperform, from neutral. Macquarie is also upbeat about the prospect of another share buyback when QBE updates on trading update in November. "QBE is currently trading at a 4.0% discount to weighted international peers on a 2-year forward PE," Macquarie says. That compares with a 3.7% three-year average premium. Macquarie raises its price target on QBE by 12% to A$26.20/share. QBE ended Thursday at A$22.85.