Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
6小時前

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1301 ET - As Canadian Prime Minister Carney lauded the benefits of a proposed new oil pipeline to the country's west coast, opposition parties offered critical assessments. Carney designated the pipeline a project of national interest, which he forecast would create 140,000 jobs and generate over C$20 billion in GDP a year. New Democratic Party leader Avi Lewis, however, says the government was throwing billions in public money beyond a pipeline at a time of climate breakdown, "while sweeping aside environmental protections." Conservative lawmaker Michelle Rempel Garner says the pipeline represents another promise from Ottawa without a clear plan, adding her party will push for details on construction, the timeline, costs, and how and when Carney will ensure completion. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)

1234 ET - Tighter fiscal and monetary policy is set to constrain the Gulf's economic recovery, Capital Economics says. Saudi Arabia is likely to cut investment projects to narrow its wide budget deficit, particularly if oil prices fall next year, while Gulf central banks are expected to tighten policy alongside the Federal Reserve. Capital Economics expects another 50 basis points of Fed rate increases, which it says will slow regional credit growth. The consultancy forecasts Saudi GDP to contract 2.5% this year before rebounding 9.3% in 2027 as oil output recovers, while the Gulf economy overall is expected to shrink around 5% this year. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1144 ET - The EIA says that 64 billion cubic feet of natural gas were added to U.S. reserves for the week ended Sept. 25. This brings net storage to 3.42 trillion cubic feet, which is nearly 4% lower than this time last year, according to the EIA. The result is spot-on with the average estimate from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week. Prior to the report, analyst say they were looking for a surprise in the report to cause a big move in natural gas futures in either direction. Instead, natural gas has gradually floated lower, with the most-active contract down 1% to $2.996 per mmBtu. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1139 ET - Enerflex could be looking at roughly $450 million of potential revenue from its 450 megawatt power award, and it is preparing for more. The company won a major Engineered Systems award for behind-the-meter natural gas-fired generation for a North American data center developer as digital infrastructure providers look for energy outside of regional electric grids. In a TD Cowen report, analyst Aaron MacNeil estimates that the company is looking at roughly $1 million per megawatt of power for the contract--revenue that will be realized through 2027 and 2028--and which will be incremental to TD's forecast. "This single award is meaningfully above our existing assumption of $50 million/quarter of power-related ES [Engineered Systems] revenue," MacNeil says. Shares are up 15%. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1117 ET - Enerflex is accelerating its push into the world of digital infrastructure, securing a contract to supply 450 megawatt of off-grid, natural gas-fired power generation for a North American data center developer. The strain from energy bottlenecks has forced digital infrastructure providers to seek out alternatives to bypass local and regional grids, connecting directly to power sources, such as nuclear or gas-powered. Enerflex is committing $15 million in 2026 capex and authorizing $85 million for facility expansions in 2027 to improve its Engineered Systems capacity. CEO Paul Mahoney says the company has over 2 gigawatts of opportunity pipeline to tap into and to convert into "meaningful commercial awards." Shares are up 17%. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0953 ET - Natural gas futures are down 0.3% to $3.017 per mmBtu, with trading centered around the $3 mark. Weather across the country remains the main factor weighing on natural gas prices. "Cooling rains in Texas may create more physical market weakness, and Week 3 warming is lowering projected heating demand," says EBW Analytics in a note. The upcoming storage report from the EIA is projected to show an injection of 64 bcf, according to a survey of analysts by WSJ. A surprise in either direction may spark a stronger move for natural gas, says EBW Analytics. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0943 ET - Crude oil futures are higher, with December Brent up 1.8% to around $100 a barrel. "Supply concerns remain under the microscope, with the conflict continuing to drag on despite improved traffic through the Strait of Hormuz," says Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital Securities in a note. Brent crude is outpacing WTI crude futures which are up 0.2% to around $91 a barrel--exhibiting the premium between Brent and WTI on the possibility of renewed attacks on oil infrastructure. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0628 ET - BofA reiterates a buy rating on Kongsberg with a NOK400 price target, implying 25% upside. The popularity of the company's Joint Strike Missile is key, not least given its role on the global F-35A rollout. There is a potential $13 billion procurement opportunity from initial missile sales. Its NASAM missile defense system is also positioned for Europe's air-defense rebuild, with a roughly EUR50bn MRAD procurement opportunity and EUR7bn revenue opportunity. (alistair.macdonald@wsj.com)

0620 ET - The U.K. manufacturing sector continued to record modest growth in September, although rising energy costs due to the Middle East conflict threaten to weaken the outlook, Matt Swannell at the ITEM Club says in a note. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.9 in September from 51.7 in August, with new orders remaining relatively healthy. But challenges are likely to gather pace, with the sector expected to lose momentum ahead, Swannell says. "Demand for consumer goods will cool as the resilience we've seen in the retail sector fades and consumers' spending is squeezed by rising inflation." Elevated energy prices are likely to persist through the first half of next year, pushing up manufacturing costs and goods inflation, Swannell adds. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0617 ET - Vestas Wind Systems' near-term demand fundamentals seem in good shape, and shares look attractive at current levels, JPMorgan analysts write. The company reported third-quarter large orders of 2.75 gigawatts, a decline of 31% on year. The weakness is at odds with the fundamentals and underlying market demand, in the bank's view. This could be explained by either Vestas deciding not to announce a few large U.S. orders, or some bookings moving to the fourth quarter amid continuing uncertainty on tariffs. The positive in orders: Australia coming back with around 1 gigawatt of orders announced on the final day of the quarter, it adds. The bank rates Vestas at overweight with a 295 Danish kroner price target. Shares fall 2.2% to 191.80 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0523 ET - Indonesia could sustain its trade surplus through 2027, though it is expected to remain modest as imports continue to grow faster than exports, RHB economist Wong Xian Yong says in a note. Export growth is expected to strengthen gradually, supported by downstream metal and manufacturing shipments and higher prices of some commodities, he says. Coal exports will likely stay weak, while palm oil could benefit from higher domestic biodiesel demand. Broader market access, including the Indonesia-EU trade deal, could support export diversification from 2027, he adds. Greater oversight of strategic commodity exports is also expected to improve transparency without materially disrupting shipments, RHB says. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0349 ET - Oil prices rise in early European trading as Middle East tensions remain elevated despite recovering crude exports from the Gulf. "U.S.-Iran negotiations have made little progress toward fully reopening Hormuz, while uncertainty persists over potential U.S. restrictions on diesel exports," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. Regional crude flows have returned to prewar levels, according to analysts, but refined-product supply remains significantly tighter. Meanwhile, the latest EIA data showed U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week as refineries ran at a slower pace, but distillate fuel stocks fell by 2.3 million barrels and were 14% below the five-year average for this time of year. The front-month Brent crude December contract rises 1.5% to $99.52 a barrel, while WTI futures are up 1.8% to $92.01 a barrel.

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