Harley-Davidson stock jumped Monday after Citi upgraded the motorcycle maker, citing improving retail sales and dealer sentiment.

Citi analyst James Hardiman on Monday upgraded Harley stock to Buy from Hold. His price target increased $2 to $33.

Harley stock was up 5.13% at $25.81, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

"We have been cautious on Harley-Davidson for several years, and for good reason, but the facts on the ground have changed enough to warrant a more constructive view," wrote Hardiman.

The reasons for caution include tariff pressure, dealer conflict, management transition, market share losses, as well as falling sales and earnings.

The bottom, however, might be in. Retail sales are rising, and Hardiman has noted improving dealer sentiment.

"While we continue to believe secular demographic challenges are real, the facts on the ground have changed enough to warrant a more constructive view," the analyst added.

The retail sales rebound in 2026 could continue in 2027 with the return of the Sportster, a smaller bike for Harley that competes with Honda, Yamaha and others.

It's an out-of-consensus call. Overall, just 26% of analysts covering Harley stock rate shares Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for S&P 500 stocks typically ranges from about 55% to 60%. The average analyst price target for Harley stock is about $28.

Analyst sentiment has weakened. A year ago, 31% of analysts covering Harley stock rated shares Buy. The average price target was closer to $30. The consensus 2027 earnings per share estimate sits at about $1.90. A year ago, it was closer to $3.

Investors feel a little better about things than Wall Street. Coming into Monday trading, Harley-Davidson stock was up 20% year to date. Shares, however, were 15% off their 52-week high, and Hardiman sees an attractive entry point.