Global Equities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
10/08

The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1943 ET - ASX's strong September-quarter trading activity supports continued belief at UBS that the Australian exchange operator could beat consensus revenue forecasts. Analysts at the investment bank tell clients in a note that they continue to see upside revenue risks after quarterly futures volumes surged 33% on a year earlier. With robust momentum elsewhere in the business, their earnings-per-share forecast for FY 2027 sits 4% higher than consensus. For FY 2028, they are 6% above consensus. That's despite tougher year-earlier comparisons on the horizon for the rest of the current fiscal year. UBS keeps a buy rating on the stock and lifts its target price 2% to 65.50 Australian dollars. Shares are up 4% at A$60.69. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1935 ET - Aristocrat Leisure's bull at Macquarie returns from a visit to the U.S. with reinforced conviction in the Australian slots maker. Maintaining an outperform rating on the stock, the Macquarie analyst believes that Aristocrat can win further share across North American gaming operations, outright machine sales, and interactive gaming. Game performance and new hardware are among the factors supporting the analyst's confidence. Having visited the recent G2E casino gaming conference in Las Vegas, the Macquarie analyst raises the target price by 3.1% to 67.00 Australian dollars. This represents 22.5 times 12-month forward earnings, with a re-rate toward 25 not out of the question. Shares are up 1% at A$60.00. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1926 ET - Light & Wonder's bull at Macquarie thinks the slots maker's shares look ripe for a quick re-rate. One of the investment bank's analysts writes in a note that improved game performance looks a likely catalyst to support investor confidence in gaming operations placements and yields. They also think Light & Wonder could launch a strategic review into products, live operations and features at its SciPlay digital-game developer. The analyst reckons that Light & Wonder shares are trading at nine times earnings on a 12-month forward basis, which represents a 55% discount to rival Aristocrat. Macquarie maintains an "outperform" rating and lifts target price 2.7%, to 185.00 Australian dollars. Shares are up 1.4%, at A$111.86. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1842 ET - Xero's bull at Citi opens a positive catalyst watch ahead of the accounting-software provider's first-half result, telling clients that recent share-price weakness represents an enhanced buying opportunity. With an unchanged "buy" recommendation on the stock, analyst Siraj Ahmed writes in a note that he expects strong revenue growth, including 44% at its Melio unit. Ahmed anticipates strong cost control that could put Xero on track to beat margin expectations for its full fiscal year. Citi cuts its target price 19%, to 91.55 Australian dollars, on lower valuation multiples across peers including Intuit. Shares are at A$56.10 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1825 ET [Dow Jones]--Can Netwealth double its market share over the next 5 years? That's the question pondered by UBS. It thinks Netwealth can get close. "Netwealth currently has 9% market share of the Platforms Industry and our forecasts imply this rises to 15% by FY31," UBS says. "Net flows are run-rating 14% of funds under administration, suggesting strong organic growth prospects." UBS says Netwealth is adding advisers to its platform at a slower pace than rival Hub24. Still, it's optimistic that Netwealth can grow its market share because its advisers account for higher average funds under administration than those of Hub24. "The main risks to this view are macro: volatile markets constraining risk appetites, RBA monetary policy, tighter household budgets, and anaemic industry financial adviser growth," UBS says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1810 ET - Infratil's bull at Citi looks past headwinds buffeting the valuation of its CDC data-center business recently. Infratil said the latest valuation of CDC was A$18.5 billion, down 0.4% from end-June. It cited the effects of a material rise in the forward yield curve, resulting in higher assumed interest costs. "While elevated interest rates represent a clear macro headwind to valuation multiples, CDC's underlying operational momentum remains robust," analyst Suraj Nebhani says. Infratil's share price has trended lower since its July high, down some 14%. It means the stock trades at a more than 30% discount to net asset value, which Citi finds attractive. "Supported by ongoing CDC de-risking and Longroad's energy and data center pipeline execution, we see compelling risk-reward and reiterate our 'buy' rating," Citi says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1802 ET - ALS's bull at Bell Potter says it is increasingly cautious about exploration activity by mining companies from FY28. It worries that equity raisings by small mining companies are weakening. Other causes for concern are a resurgence of cost input inflation observed across the global mining industry, rising bond yields and a weakening gold price environment. Bell Potter cuts its price target on ALS by 7.7% to A$24.00/share. Still, it retains a buy call on the stock, as indicators point to short-term buoyant conditions in the exploration market. "Given the 1Q FY27 trading update, we reiterate our position that FY27 Minerals organic revenue growth guidance appears conservative," analyst Joseph House says. ALS ended Wednesday at A$21.09. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1743 ET - Macmahon Holdings's latest M&A foray represents the beginning of the mining services company's third pillar, according to Jefferies. Macmahon is acquiring Aspect Engineering for an enterprise value of up to A$90 million. Analyst John Campbell says the deal extends Macmahon's service offering across the resources value chain. In the process, it will help Macmachon with customer retention and improve its profit margins, Jefferies adds. "Ultimately, this acquisition is all about revenue synergies, not costs," Jefferies says. It views an enterprise value-to-Ebita multiple of 5x as highly appealing. Jefferies's price target rises 6.5% to A$1.15/share and it retains a hold call on Macmahon's stock. Macmahon ended Wednesday at A$1.115. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1738 ET - Australian stocks look set to retreat in early trade after U.S. equities fell amid volatility in U.S. Treasury yields. Local futures were down by 0.6% ahead of Thursday's session, suggesting the S&P/ASX 200 will head lower after stalling in the prior session. The benchmark index slipped 0.1% Wednesday, ending a three-day winning run that had moved it 1.4% away from last week's four-month low. Ahead of the open, gold miner Ramelius said it was on track to hit its 2027 production guidance. Lithium miner Elevra announced a supply agreement with LG Energy Solution. In the U.S., the DJIA fell 0.7%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2%. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1735 ET - Arena REIT adds Jefferies as a bull after a major drag on its stock was removed. Arena owns early learning centers occupied by Edge Early Learning, which has become insolvent. Now, the administrator of Edge has reached a preliminary deal with Goodstart Early Learning for the acquisition of 31 early learning centers operated by Edge. "Goodstart's conditional heads of agreement covering 20 of Arena REIT's 27 Edge tenancies materially reduces the key overhang on the stock," analyst Andrew Dodds says. Jefferies points out that Arena REIT's stock is 29% below levels when Edge's troubles were first reported. It's trading at a 35% discount to net tangible assets and with a 7.7% FY27 dividend yield. Jefferies upgrades Arena REIT to buy, from hold, and retains a A$2.65/share price target. Arena REIT ended Wednesday at A$2.35. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1635 ET - Levi Strauss is using its tariff refund to spur long-term growth. The jeans company put some of the refunds toward its immediate earnings, but also allotted some to reinvest into the business. Levi spent some of the refunds on promotion and marketing expenditures, which resulted in an additional $25 million expense in the third quarter. Of the 16 cents a share in refunds during the quarter, Levi spent 5 cents a share on reinvestments. It plans to redeploy $60 million in refunds this year back into the business. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)

1602 ET - Lululemon Athletica has tapped Athleta's chief executive to lead its product strategy during a difficult time for both athleticwear brands. Maggie Gauger has spent just over a year at Gap's athletic brand Athleta, after more than two decades at Nike. Athleta has not had a strong year and same-store sales fell 12% in the latest quarter, despite growth in Gap's other brands. It is facing many similar problems to Lululemon, such as reliance on promotions and weak customer engagement, which executives said in August would take a long time to fix. Lululemon, meanwhile, has consistently failed to get its new product launches to resonate with shoppers.

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