3 Things Investors Need to Know Before Buying Skydance

Dow Jones
10/06

Skydance, the newly merged combination of Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery, is coming to the New York Stock Exchange, and investors have a lot to think about before backing the media behemoth.

According to a securities filing, Paramount Skydance plans on transferring the listing of the company's Class B common stock from the Nasdaq Stock Market to the New York Stock Exchange, with the listing expected to be effective on or about the market open today.

CEO David Ellison announced last week on X that the company's name will be Skydance. The stock's ticker will change from PSKY to SKYD.

Wall Street participants are now left to decide whether or not they want to buy Skydance stock, and it's not an easy choice to make. These are some of the considerations investors should be aware of ahead of making that decision.

Skydance's Intellectual Property Offers an Advantage

Following the merger's closure, Skydance will own some of the most highly recognizable film franchises in the world. These include Warner Bros.' Lord of the Rings and Paramount Pictures' Top Gun.

There's also already an exciting lineup of movies in the pipeline, like The Cat in the Hat that's coming to theaters next month, and The Lord of the Rings: The Hunt for Gollum releasing in December 2027.

Skydance isn't short on options when it comes to content. That's a boon for the company as it looks for new ways to generate revenue and grow subscriber numbers for its streaming segment.

More challengingly, Skydance will also maintain the TV networks from both Paramount and Warner Bros., including CBS, CNN, and HBO. Linear TV viewing continues to decline as audience defect to streaming. That impacts revenue, as advertising dollars go where consumers are, which is increasingly streaming services and social media. Warner Bros. reported a 22% drop in second-quarter advertising revenue while Paramount's second-quarter TV media ad revenue fell 14%. Both companies cited linear declines as a continued headwind.

Still, while it may be losing relevance and viewers, traditional TV still generates cash. The Skydance team needs to prove it can minimize the shrinking of linear TV while utilizing the revenue it does produce to help the business grow.

The Merger Solidifies Skydance's Position In the Streaming Wars

It isn't clear yet how Skydance will organize its streaming offerings, but experts have ideas. Some think that Paramount+ and HBO Max will stay separate in the near term as the company works out the best way to combine their content. Eventually, Skydance could introduce a combined platform with tiered subscription plans that brings together everything from both services.

Streaming is a key battleground for Skydance, but it's also one where competition is fierce.

Netflix, Disney+, Amazon.com's Prime Video, YouTube, and social media sites are just some of the content providers that Skydance is competing with for viewing time. Bringing Paramount+ and HBO Max under one roof may turn two smaller streaming services into one powerhouse that's better positioned to compete. However, hitting the right price point is going to be essential, too, as audiences face subscription fatigue.

"HBO and Paramount combined will have a lot of compelling content that makes it an undeniable survivor and more of a must have service for a large number of consumers," Dolgin said.

Debt Is a Top Concern

According to a securities filing Skydance will carry roughly $80 billion of total debt after combining Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery. That's a huge burden for a newly formed company and puts the pressure on management to cut costs and make strides in taming that debt from the outset.

Some analysts are concerned Skydance is going to have a hard time paying down its debt in a timely fashion.

"We believe the combined company will struggle to meet its multi-year leverage commitments and will issue equity to pay down debt," Wolfe Research's Peter Supino wrote on Sept. 22. Issuing equity would be dilutive to shareholders, and an overhang on the stock.

Skydance's leadership has committed to achieving $6 billion in cost efficiencies over three years following the acquisition's closure. Experts agree that achieving this goal is crucial if the company is to show investors that it can manage its debt. It's not clear yet what those massive costs savings will look like, but they're expected to include internal changes like layoffs and business restructurings.

The debt and cost savings expectations make investing in Skydance a risky bet, but one that could have a large payoff, says Morningstar analyst Matthew Dolgin.

"If one believes that Skydance can nearly make good on what it said it would do and be a real winner or participant in the next era of big media companies, then it's stock could have a lot of leverage to the upside," Dolgin said.

 

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