LVMH's Revenue Trends Could Remain Soft on Tough Luxury Environment

Dow Jones
10/09
 

Louis Vuitton owner LVMH is scheduled to report results for the third quarter on Monday. Here is what you need to know.

 

SALES FORECAST: The French luxury-goods conglomerate is expected to report revenue of 18.49 billion euros, or $20.73 billion, for the quarter through September, according to a poll of estimates by 13 analysts compiled by Visible Alpha. In the prior-year period, it booked revenue of 18.28 billion euros.

The company's core fashion and leather goods business should post revenue of 8.40 billion euros, according to the same consensus, compared with 8.5 billion euros previously.

 

Shares have fallen around 31% over the past 12 months and are down 40% since the start of the year.

WHAT TO WATCH

 

-- LVMH, which is considered a bellwether for the luxury industry, could report a deterioration in revenue trends compared with the second quarter, Equita SIM's Paola Carboni said in a research note. The sector context remains uncertain, she said. RBC Capital Markets analysts had expected an uptick in revenue in the second half of 2026, helped by a creative renewal at Dior, one of the group's heavyweight brands. But this will be offset by weakening economic trends as well as a softened luxury demand environment in the third quarter, RBC said.

-- The luxury sector's rebound in China might have to wait, as Chinese luxury shoppers have been hit by slower macroeconomic growth, putting middle-class consumers on the back foot, analysts at Bernstein wrote in a note to clients. "Chinese consumer confidence has yet to revive after a massive postpandemic step down," the brokerage said.

-- The industry also faces the consequences of the war in the Middle East, including the impact of the conflict on travel flows and higher oil prices pressuring consumers. The war in Iran is affecting both local demand and international tourism, as the Middle East is a key air connection point for Asian tourist flows to Europe, who are vital for the industry, Jefferies analysts said in a note.

 
 

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