Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX:PDN) produced 1 million pounds in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, missing Jefferies' estimate by 11% and the Visible Alpha consensus estimate by 14%, according to a Wednesday note by Jefferies.

Jefferies said weaker recovery and low opening in-circuit inventory compounded the planned shutdown. Cost of production was 29% above its estimate.

Unchanged guidance requires a material grade and recovery uplift in the second half, exposing fiscal 2027 earnings to delivery risk, the note added. Product loans, swaps and prepaid sales also obscure quarterly cash conversion, the note said.

Jefferies maintained its buy rating on Paladin Energy with a AU$14.50 target price.

Paladin Energy shares fell past 7% in recent Wednesday trade and earlier hit their lowest since August 2025.