SpaceX Has a Ukraine Problem. What it Means for the Stock.

Dow Jones
2小時前

Tesla investors know that politics can have an impact on their electric-vehicle investment. SpaceX investors are learning a similar lesson.

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has been wading into Russia-Ukraine policy, calling for the replacement of President Volodymyr Zelensky late Wednesday. That tweet followed a recent comment from Musk that "Zelensky has gone too far," following Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.

On Wednesday, SpaceX imposed new restrictions on Ukraine's Starlink use, essentially shutting the service off if the equipment is going more than 100 miles per hour. That might sound odd to investors, but it means that Starlink won't work on fast-moving drones, limiting Ukraine's ability to hit some Russian targets.

Starlink is SpaceX's space-based broadband product operating in more than 160 countries.

SpaceX didn't respond to a request for comment about the service change.

Musk seemed to point to the U.S. government for the restrictions, adding another tweet that Starlink is limited to "civilian and defense activities," and that Starshield -- the military version of Starlink -- is controlled by the U.S. government. "Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the U.S. military and ultimately POTUS," said Musk.

The Starlink, Starshield, and Ukraine issue is a watch item for investors. It has the potential to divide public opinion, which can affect Starlink sales in the U.S. Musk's early involvement in the Trump administration had an impact on Tesla sales, according to Wall Street, academics, and Tesla itself. (Musk noted "blowback" from the Department of Government Efficiency on Tesla's first-quarter earnings conference call in April 2025.)

Investors should also remember that the market forgets, eventually. Tesla stock recovered from its political headwinds. It hit a record high of $498.83 just before Christmas.

The Starlink situation will also create opportunities for competitors. Shares of European satellite operator Eutelsat jumped 23% on Wednesday. Shares fell 10.7% on Thursday, which still left them up about 10% over the past couple of days.

Still, Eutelsat has a market value of about $3.4 billion. It's nowhere near SpaceX's scale. Eutelsat is expected to generate 2026 sales of about $1.4 billion and lose money. SpaceX's Starlink business is expected to generate 2026 sales of about $18 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) of more than $11 billion.

SpaceX stock traded as low as $140.66 early on Thursday, and closed at $148.62, down 2.3%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively.

Ukraine isn't the only factor in the Thursday move. Instead, CoreWeave bond yields are rising -- raising concerns about the massive financing for the AI data center building boom. What's more, Anthropic's third-quarter revenue reportedly rose to $16.8 billion, up 45%. It's an impressive number, but growth decelerated from the second quarter.

CoreWeave stock traded below $60 early on Thursday, but rallied to close at $69.69, up 5.9%. Shares fell more than 15% on Wednesday. Anthropic isn't publicly traded yet.

 

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