Apple managed to escape the artificial-intelligence panic that sparked last week's stock market rout -- but there may be tougher times ahead for the tech giant.

The iPhone 18 launch is unlikely to go as well as Apple hopes because customers will find it tough to stomach higher prices at a time when their existing device already does the job, KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel wrote in a note recapping a recent survey of iPhone users.

"Below the surface, the broader base of consumers are less likely to upgrade as prices rise, carriers restrict promotions, and their existing hardware is adequate," he said. "This ultimately leads to a moderation in unit volumes."

Nispel rates Apple at Underweight, with a $250 price target implying the stock will drop 27% from its level as of Friday's close.

Apple dodged the broader market gloom last week, lifting its total market capitalization to more than $5 trillion for the first time ever.

The worry for investors is that the company's earnings won't rise fast enough to justify that lofty valuation. Shares fetch 36-times expected earnings for fiscal 2027, a sizable premium to their historical average.

But one point in Apple's favor is that it hasn't plowed much money into AI, compared with rivals like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon who plan to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into the tech.

Plenty of investors don't think this year's 26% rally will last but Apple is "the poster child for how the market is rewarding a capex-lite approach that is AI-model agnostic," said Melius analyst Ben Reitzes, who rates the stock at Buy with a $370 price target.