Elon Musk Says SpaceX Sales Are "Exploding"—and Forecasts Revenue Twice Wall Street’s Estimate

Dow Jones
14小時前

The Baron Investment Conference is like Woodstock for growth investors. The 33rd annual meeting took place on Friday at New York City’s Lincoln Center.

The conference gives Baron Capital’s mutual fund shareholders a chance to hear from portfolio managers and companies.

It often gives fund shareholders a chance to hear from the world’s richest human, Elon Musk.

Little of the conversation broke new ground, but Musk did talk about SpaceX’s explosive revenue growth. Investors might be interested in just how high the iconoclast sees revenue reaching in December 2027.

Baron Capital founder Ron Baron is a longtime supporter of Musk and a longtime holder of Tesla and SpaceX shares. SpaceX is the largest holding in the Baron Opportunity Fund, accounting for about 16% of fund assets. Tesla is the fourth-largest position behind SpaceX, Nvidia, and Broadcom. SpaceX and Tesla are also the two largest positions in the Baron Partners Fund.

It’s an interesting time to hear from Musk, following the midterm elections. Through midday trading on Friday, SpaceX stock was down about 6% since the election, in which Democratic candidates won key races in Texas, the home of SpaceX and Tesla. Tesla stock was off about 10%. The drops cost Musk roughly $75 billion in wealth. (He spent roughly half a billion on political donations in this election cycle.)

Investors are worried the Democratic blue wave means slower AI growth, and Musk has pinned the future of both companies on AI. SpaceX runs terrestrial AI data centers and plans to put AI computers in space. Tesla wants to infuse physical things, such as robo-taxis and humanoid robots, with AI technology.

The slowdown hasn’t happened yet, though. Revenue at SpaceX is “exploding,” said Musk. Sales grew 87% sequentially from the second to third quarter.

“I’m not sure what the exact numbers will be Q3 to Q4…but probably something like 70%…and it’s something similar Q4 to Q1,” he said.

That implies fourth-quarter revenue of about $25 billion, close to Wall Street projections. And another 70% sequential gain from the fourth to the first quarter means sales of about $42 billion, more than the $33 billion analysts currently project.

What’s more, “annualized revenue” in December 2027 will be north of $500 billion, he said. That implies December revenue of about $40 billion and fourth-quarter 2027 revenue somewhere between $80 billion and $100 billion. Currently, analysts project $58 billion.

“This is not a promise,” said Musk. “This is just what I think will happen.”

Is it guidance or aspirational goals? It’s hard to say with Musk. At least investors can take some solace that SpaceX isn’t seeing a slowdown in AI computing services.

The stock market, of course, is dominated by AI—and AI fears. Before the election, investors weren’t sure if capital markets could finance the trillion-dollar buildout. After the election, investors are worried Democrats won’t let the buildout happen.

“The pitchfork level for data centers is pretty high,” said Musk, adding later that he believes Memphis residents are fans of what SpaceX’s Colossus I data center has done for the local economy.

Musk’s Friday conversation won’t overcome all AI fears. Still, the revenue projections are something to behold.

SpaceX stock closed up 8.6% at $134.27. Shares were up most of the day, making it hard to determine how much of an effect Musk had. After wild trading, shares ended the week down less than 1%.

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