Stock-market rout spreads far beyond AI stocks. Plus: First-time homebuyers are paying all-cash. Where's the money coming from?
A postelection hangover has taken hold on Wall Street.
👋🏽Happy Friday! Here's what I'm thinking about this morning: hangovers.
Wall Street barely had time to celebrate Wednesday's postelection rally before Thursday delivered a brutal reversal, erasing nearly $3 trillion in market value.
Now comes the hard part. Was Thursday's selling the worst of it, or is there more pain ahead?
The S&P 500 is approaching an important inflection point. After closing Thursday around 7,354, the index sits just above its 200-day moving average, a widely watched measure of the market's longer-term trend, at 7,323. Investors often look to that line for clues about whether the market's uptrend is holding. A break below it could amplify the downtrend and further rattle confidence.
The trouble is that Wall Street may not have suffered enough. BTIG sees early signs of panic selling but not the kind of widespread surrender that is often associated with a durable market bottom. Fundstrat's Mark Newton, meanwhile, thinks a sharp rebound could happen as soon as Friday, or Monday.
For investors itching to buy the dip, it's a crucial distinction. A market due for a bounce isn't always one that's found a bottom.
So what should investors watch?
First, whether the S&P 500 can hold that longer-term trend line. Then, whether buyers return to semiconductor stocks that have borne the worst of the selling, and whether any recovery extends beyond a handful of top-tier tech names.
And don't overlook Friday's jobs report. A surprise in hiring or wages could shift expectations for interest rates and trigger fresh volatility. Follow our live coverage.
After a bruising selloff, the temptation is to go hunting for bargains. Just remember this: Stocks can always get cheaper.
Sign up here to get Need to Know in your inbox daily.
Three stories worth your time ...
-- The year's most successful stock-market trades are unraveling
-- This pancreatic-cancer treatment is on track for one of the best launches of all time
-- Elon Musk announces Tesla will wind down production of the Cybertruck at its Texas factory.
Thursday's decline felt different. It wasn't just about AI stocks. By the closing bell, it had become an everything selloff. Consider the numbers:
-- 430: The number of S&P 500 stocks that declined, signaling that the carnage wasn't confined to AI-related companies this time.
-- 30: Not a single member among the Dow's 30 constituent stocks finished the session in positive territory.
-- Nearly 12%: How far the Nasdaq Composite has fallen below its October peak.
-- 25.3 billion: Combined share-trading volume, the fourth busiest session this year - 43% above the average daily volume, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Taken together, the figures point to something more troubling than lost investor patience with pricey AI stocks.
What we do know already is that overseas sentiment is following the U.S.'s. Japan's Nikkei JP:NIK, the Taiex TW:Y9999 in Taiwan and South Korea's Kospi KR:180721 got hammered in overnight trading.
-- Check out our live markets coverage.
-- And follow our live coverage of the nonfarm-payrolls report for October.
Is Nvidia a bargain?
Nvidia's stock (NVDA) has fallen more than 24% from its record-high close in October, putting the AI giant squarely in bear-market territory.
For investors who missed its remarkable run-up, is this the buying opportunity they've been waiting for? Britney Nguyen explains why some analysts believe the selloff has gone too far.
2027 tax brackets ...
🧮 "It's not too early to start thinking about your 2027 taxes," said no one ever.
That said, the IRS has released its new income-tax brackets for the 2027 tax year, and Andrew Keshner explains what the changes to deductions and other tax breaks could mean for your money.
-- How much in Roth conversions can you do in 2027 with the new tax brackets?
-- These are the 2027 capital-gains-tax rates for each income level.
Left out of the will ...
Her 93-year-old father changed his will, leaving everything to her brother, who had moved in with him, and nothing to her.
The Moneyish examines the red flags and weighs in on what she should do the next.
Another test for markets ...
It's been a slow and steady job market.
👷🏽???Friday's jobs report arrives at an awkward moment for Wall Street. Economists expect to learn that just 59,000 jobs were gained in October - hardly a picture of a booming economy.
But, as Jeffry Bartash explains, the U.S. labor market has been remarkably steady, even if hiring remains sluggish. After Thursday's stock-market rout, investors will be looking for evidence that the economy is holding up, not another reason to worry.
All-cash is king ...
💵Buying your first home is hard enough these days. Now imagine competing against buyers who don't even need a mortgage.
A record 10% of first-time buyers are paying entirely in cash, according to the National Association of Realtors.
I have questions.
Where's all that cash coming from? Aarthi Swaminathan digs into what's behind the trend and what it means for buyers who do need a mortgage.
About me
Mark DeCambre is editor in chief of MarketWatch. He has spent more than 20 years covering Wall Street, markets and personal finance, and writes Need to Know, drawing on the award-winning analysis and journalism of the newsroom.
-Mark DeCambre