Abstract

AECOM will report fiscal first-quarter results on February 09, 2026 Post Market; the preview below summarizes last quarter’s performance, the company’s projections, and the prevailing Street stance to help frame expectations.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to a softer quarter for AECOM, with revenue projected at $3.61 billion (down 11.46% year over year), EBIT estimated at $0.24 billion (down 0.39% year over year), and adjusted EPS estimated at $1.17 (up 5.11% year over year). Margin commentary from the company’s last report implied stabilization in gross profit margin and disciplined cost control, while the net profit margin remains modest; if available, the company’s guidance will be reconciled on release.

AECOM’s main business continues to be driven by project delivery under three contract structures: cost-reimbursable at $6.20 billion, guaranteed maximum price at $5.96 billion, and fixed price at $3.98 billion for the last reported period, highlighting the breadth of delivery models across its backlog and revenue. The most promising segment remains higher-value professional services within integrated program management and design—supported by ongoing demand in infrastructure and environmental programs—though precise year-over-year growth detail for this segment is not available in the current dataset.

Last Quarter Review

AECOM’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $4.18 billion (up 1.58% year over year), a gross profit margin of 7.92%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.12 billion (quarter-on-quarter change of -8.09%), a net profit margin of 2.88%, and adjusted EPS of $1.36 (up 7.09% year over year).

A key highlight was operating resilience: EBIT of $0.30 billion grew 14.60% year over year despite a mixed top line, underscoring disciplined execution and operating leverage in core professional services. By business structure, the company executed across cost-reimbursable ($6.20 billion), guaranteed maximum price ($5.96 billion), and fixed-price ($3.98 billion) models in the period, reflecting diversified contract exposure and revenue recognition across the portfolio, though the year-over-year breakdown by contract type was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Project Delivery and Professional Services

The market anticipates a sequential slowdown in reported revenue to $3.61 billion, a function of project timing and mix, with a forecast year-over-year decline of 11.46%. Within this view, the company’s professional services engine remains central to margin defense and cash generation, as evidenced by adjusted EPS expected to rise 5.11% year over year to $1.17 despite lower revenue. This pattern indicates that AECOM’s fee-based and advisory work may be offsetting weakness in pass-through revenue, as higher-value design, program management, and consulting tend to support gross margin stability.

The last quarter’s 7.92% gross profit margin and 2.88% net profit margin provide a baseline for assessing this quarter’s margin trajectory. If the mix skews toward professional services over lower-margin construction pass-throughs, gross margin could hold or expand, even as revenue declines. The quarter’s EBIT estimate of $0.24 billion, down 0.39% year over year, implies near-flat operating profitability, suggesting continued cost discipline and operational efficiency. Investors will be focused on backlog conversion cadence and book-to-bill dynamics in the core business, as these will shape the recovery path in the coming quarters.

Most Promising Growth Areas and Segment Drivers

Within AECOM’s diversified contract mix, higher-margin professional services—particularly integrated program management and technical consulting attached to infrastructure and environmental mandates—remain the most promising. While the dataset does not provide explicit year-over-year growth for these subsegments, adjusted EPS resilience in a declining revenue quarter points to sustained momentum in advisory-oriented scopes. The company’s exposure to long-cycle infrastructure programs, environmental remediation, and federally funded projects tends to provide multi-year visibility, supporting utilization and pricing.

From the last reported period’s breakdown, cost-reimbursable work at $6.20 billion and guaranteed maximum price at $5.96 billion show significant scale—both categories typically feature lower risk than pure fixed-price work and can offer steadier cash conversion when managed well. The $3.98 billion in fixed-price activity highlights ongoing exposure to outcome-based execution; performance here can create incremental upside if change orders and schedule adherence are favorable, but it can also cap margin if cost escalation arises. For the quarter at hand, the Street’s expectation of modest EBIT pressure suggests a balanced project mix with limited incremental margin expansion, keeping the focus on execution quality and backlog burn.

Key Stock Price Sensitivities This Quarter

The primary swing factor is margin performance versus the implied revenue decline. If gross margin holds near or above the prior quarter’s 7.92% and the net margin approximates the prior 2.88% despite lower revenue, the market may reward evidence of disciplined mix and cost control. Conversely, a step-down in gross margin could pressure sentiment, especially if revenue growth visibility remains muted.

Backlog commentary and forward book-to-bill will also be critical. A strong intake that reaffirms revenue conversion in the second half of the fiscal year would likely offset near-term top-line softness and underpin confidence in mid-term EPS growth. Finally, cash flow conversion and any update on capital returns could influence reaction around the print; stable free cash flow alongside resilient adjusted EPS would support the valuation even as revenue dips.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary on AECOM has been predominantly bullish in the past six months. Among notable updates, RBC Capital reaffirmed a Buy rating with a $139.00 price target, Barclays maintained a Buy rating with a $145.00 price target, and National Bank initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $151.00 price target. Across these views, the ratio is decisively skewed toward bullish opinions, with no recent bearish calls surfaced in the same window from the sources reviewed.

The majority perspective emphasizes the durability of AECOM’s earnings profile, supported by high-quality professional services mix, disciplined execution, and visibility from long-duration programs. Analysts point to consistent adjusted EPS delivery—even as reported revenue can fluctuate with pass-through volumes—as a core tenet of the investment case. In this context, the forecast of $1.17 adjusted EPS for the quarter is seen as attainable, particularly if operating expense control remains tight and revenue mix continues to favor advisory and program management. Price targets in the $139.00 to $151.00 range imply confidence in mid-term EPS compounding once project timing normalizes and backlog conversion accelerates.

In synthesizing the Street’s stance with the company’s projections, the bullish majority expects that any near-term decline in revenue will be transitory and mix-driven rather than reflecting demand deterioration. The emphasis is on execution quality, backlog momentum, and the capacity to hold or gently expand margins in the face of lower pass-through revenues. Should AECOM demonstrate stable gross margin and reaffirm a constructive trajectory for adjusted EPS, analysts anticipate that the stock could maintain support and potentially re-rate toward the cited target range as visibility into the fiscal year improves.