新加坡金管局最新发布的年度报告透露出明显的温和政策倾向。美国银行全球研究部经济学家在分析报告中指出,这份文件很可能为七月货币政策转向宽松铺平道路——预计当局将通过调平新加坡元名义有效汇率区间的斜率来实现政策松绑。
鉴于新加坡高度开放的小型经济体特征,该国央行长期将汇率作为维持物价稳定的核心政策工具。美银研报特别援引了金管局的关键表述:核心通胀被定性为"受抑制状态",且决策层对潜在经济增长放缓的忧虑显著加深。值得注意的是,当前政策声明中的若干措辞与2016年4月汇率斜率调整前的官方表态高度相似。
研报进一步强调,本次年报异常突出金管局维持物价稳定的法定职责,称其为经济体系提供了"至关重要的稳定锚点"。这种措辞重心的转移,连同对经济下行风险的着重提示,共同构成货币政策转向的强烈预兆。
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