Abstract

Energy Fuels will announce quarterly results on February 27, 2026 Pre-Market, with investors watching revenue, margins, and EPS as the company navigates a transitional quarter ahead of its rare-earth strategy inflection.

Market Forecast

Based on the company’s latest forecast dataset, Energy Fuels is expected to report revenue of $21.83 million this quarter, and adjusted EPS of -$0.09; year over year, revenue is forecast to decline by 52.74%, while adjusted EPS is projected to decline by 264.82%. Forecasted gross profit margin and net profit margin have not been guided; EBIT is estimated at -$20.27 million, pointing to a continuation of losses in a quarter in which deliveries and product mix may soften versus the prior period.

The main business remains uranium concentrate, which drives nearly all of the company’s sales and margin outcomes in reported quarters; revenue mix points to a heavy concentration, and the outlook depends on contracted delivery timing and realized prices in the production and processing system. The most promising segment for shareholder value creation is the evolving rare-earths platform, with strategic momentum from announced plans to acquire Australian Strategic Materials; revenue contribution from this platform is not yet consolidated, and year-over-year comparisons are not available in the current quarter.

Last Quarter Review

Energy Fuels delivered revenue of $17.71 million, gross profit margin of 27.81%, GAAP net loss attributable to the parent company of -$16.74 million, net profit margin of -94.50%, and adjusted EPS of -$0.07; year over year, total revenue increased by 337.61% and adjusted EPS was flat.

A key highlight was the substantial revenue surprise versus prior estimates: the company reported $17.71 million against a consensus expectation of $8.90 million, a positive variance of $8.81 million, though EBIT came in at -$26.67 million, worse than the -$14.30 million estimate, reflecting elevated operating costs and a loss structure that is not yet offset by scale or premium pricing. The main business mix was dominated by uranium concentrate, which contributed $17.37 million (98.08% of total revenue), while alternate feed processing and other contributed $0.34 million; the quarter’s revenue base rose 337.61% year over year, underlining a delivery-heavy period even as profitability remained constrained.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Uranium concentrate

Uranium concentrate continues to be the financial anchor for Energy Fuels, representing 98.08% of last quarter’s reported revenue, or $17.37 million. The company’s near-term performance is highly sensitive to delivery schedules and realized pricing within existing contracts, and the quarter-to-quarter cadence can be lumpy due to batch shipments that move revenue materially. Against a strong prior quarter top line, management’s forecast implies a softer year-over-year profile this quarter for total revenue (-52.74%), a pattern consistent with delivery normalization and a potentially less favorable mix, which can compress both gross margin and EBIT. Given the last quarter’s gross margin of 27.81% and net margin of -94.50%, any change in shipment timing, processing cost absorption, or the proportion of lower-margin materials processed will have an outsized impact on this quarter’s reported profitability.

Operationally, sustained negative EBIT forecasts (-$20.27 million) point to a continued mismatch between revenue scale and fixed-cost coverage, despite the company’s ability to ramp deliveries when scheduling permits. This quarter’s adjusted EPS guidance (-$0.09 with a 264.82% year-over-year decline) suggests either a lower revenue per unit, higher operating costs, or both. Notably, the prior quarter’s beat on revenue alongside a miss on EBIT indicates cost drivers outweighing volume benefits; investors should expect management’s commentary to focus on processing costs, unit economics at the mill, and any temporary inefficiencies that they expect to resolve. The sensitivity of quarterly results to shipment scheduling means investors should weigh sequential variability; however, consistency in contracted volumes over a multi-quarter horizon typically underpins forward visibility for revenue, even if single-quarter margins are pressured by mix and timing.

Most promising business: Rare-earth platform build-out

The announced transaction on January 21, 2026 to acquire Australian Strategic Materials (ASM), valued at approximately $299 million, is designed to create a “mine-to-metal & alloy” rare-earth producer once closed, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. Strategically, the combination targets margin uplift through vertical integration: moving beyond oxide production to alloys captures more value per tonne and can smooth quarterly variability by adding downstream product sales and technical-grade contracts. While revenue from this platform is not yet consolidated into this quarter’s results and year-over-year metrics are not available for the rare-earth segment, the direction of travel is clear: management is positioning toward a broader product portfolio with potential for structurally higher margins versus standalone oxide sales.

Execution will be critical. Near-term, investors will look for updates on the closing timeline, integration plans, and operating synergies envisioned from the combined supply chain. Beyond transaction mechanics, the most practical impacts in the upcoming quarter will be around capital planning, qualification processes with end-users, and the reconfiguration of production schedules to accommodate a diversified product slate. If approvals progress smoothly, the platform could begin to influence guidance ranges by mid-year, potentially improving forecast quality for both revenue and gross margin. Packaging these developments with the existing uranium cornerstone can create a more balanced financial model, where processing facilities generate multi-product throughput and EBIT variability narrows as blended margin tracks higher-value products.

Key stock price drivers this quarter

Near-term stock performance will largely hinge on three elements: delivery cadence in the uranium concentrate business, the margin trajectory against last quarter’s 27.81% gross margin, and clarity on the ASM deal pathway. Investors will scrutinize whether this quarter’s lower year-over-year revenue forecast (-52.74%) stems primarily from timing factors rather than demand or capacity constraints; management’s qualitative color on scheduled deliveries is likely to be a focal point on the call. Margin commentary will be equally important: even modest improvements in processing efficiency or an advantageous mix can translate into disproportionate changes in EBIT given last quarter’s -$26.67 million outcome versus this quarter’s -$20.27 million estimate.

EPS visibility (-$0.09 estimated, down 264.82% year over year) sets a low baseline, and any upside surprise from cost containment or higher realized prices could meaningfully affect the share price. Separately, transaction progress on ASM will act as a sentiment governor: clean milestones—approval updates, integration plans, and initial operating targets—should support the investment narrative for the rare-earth platform. Finally, the tone and specifics of sell-side coverage updates since January 2026 have been constructive; if the company’s Thursday morning commentary aligns with those improving views, investors could recalibrate multi-quarter expectations around a more diversified revenue base even while acknowledging near-term volatility in quarterly profitability.

Analyst Opinions

Coverage since the start of the year signals a majority bullish stance. On February 11, 2026, a widely circulated update cited an average Buy rating on Energy Fuels and a mean price target of $26.79, reflecting constructive sentiment on the company’s forward path. On January 20, 2026, B. Riley raised its price target to $27 and reiterated a Buy rating, highlighting improved visibility and a refined thesis around execution and asset value. On January 21, 2026, the company announced the planned acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials, and subsequent commentary emphasized the potential for margin uplift and value capture through a vertically integrated rare-earth platform; in parallel, Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a CA$40.63 price target on February 11, 2026, reinforcing the positive bias from high-profile institutions.

Counting the views within the eligible period since January 1, 2026, the ratio of bullish to bearish opinions is 3:0, indicating consensus optimism. The majority position tends to cite three pillars: delivery durability in the uranium concentrate business over a multi-quarter horizon despite single-quarter fluctuations; the strategic logic of adding rare-earth alloys for margin expansion; and the potential for improved economics through greater throughput and product diversification at the milling and processing assets. Analysts also point to the company’s demonstrated ability to materially exceed revenue expectations in a delivery-heavy quarter, as seen last period, while cautioning that EBIT and EPS can lag until cost absorption improves and the rare-earth strategy begins to contribute.

In practice, bullish views expect this quarter’s reported metrics to set up a transition rather than finalize it. The estimated $21.83 million revenue, -$20.27 million EBIT, and -$0.09 EPS frame a trough-like print, from which margin normalization and delivery timing could yield sequential improvements. Price targets in the mid-$20s imply confidence in management’s strategic direction and process control, especially if near-term guidance confirms operational readiness for a larger, more integrated product slate. Overall, the majority opinion is that Energy Fuels is positioned for a multi-quarter progression in financial quality, with this quarter serving as a bridge toward more balanced revenue and margin contributions once the rare-earth platform advances and the delivery calendar normalizes.

Market Forecast

Consensus expectations for this quarter, based on the company’s latest forecast set, are for revenue of $21.83 million and adjusted EPS of -$0.09; year over year, revenue is expected to decline by 52.74%, while adjusted EPS is forecast to decline by 264.82%. No explicit guidance has been provided for this quarter’s gross profit margin or net profit margin, though EBIT is estimated at -$20.27 million.

The company’s main business is uranium concentrate, where delivery schedules heavily influence quarterly revenue and margin patterns. The most promising driver of future growth and margin expansion is the rare-earth platform build-out, supported by the announced ASM acquisition; revenue and year-over-year data for this platform are not available for the current quarter.

Last Quarter Review

Energy Fuels reported revenue of $17.71 million with gross profit margin of 27.81%, a GAAP net loss attributable to the parent company of -$16.74 million, net profit margin of -94.50%, and adjusted EPS of -$0.07; year over year, total revenue increased by 337.61% and adjusted EPS was flat.

A primary business highlight was the scale of outperformance versus revenue expectations: reported revenue exceeded estimates by $8.81 million, while EBIT at -$26.67 million showed the burden of cost absorption and mix. Main business concentration was evident: uranium concentrate delivered $17.37 million (98.08% of total), while alternate feed processing and other contributed $0.34 million; the quarter’s strong revenue cadence was offset by losses, underscoring the importance of margin stability and cost control.