Abstract

Birkenstock Holding plc will release fiscal Q1 2026 results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview outlines consensus for revenue, margins, and EPS, evaluates last quarter’s execution, and synthesizes majority institutional views from recent coverage.

Market Forecast

Based on the company’s latest guidance and compiled estimates, Birkenstock Holding plc’s current-quarter outlook implies revenue of $402.05 million, up 12.88% year over year, with forecast EBIT of $77.17 million and EPS of $0.25, implying year-over-year EPS growth of 60.97%. The company’s prior disclosures suggest continued gross profit margin resilience and a stable net margin profile into the quarter, though specific forecast percentages have not been disclosed; the modeled setup points to modest margin improvement alongside the revenue mix shift and operating leverage.

Management indicates that wholesale (business-to-business) remains the revenue anchor while direct-to-consumer provides incremental growth and margin support; the current-quarter highlight is sustained global demand for core silhouettes and steady order books from key retail partners. The most promising segment is direct-to-consumer, underpinned by expanding e-commerce and owned retail traffic; last quarter DTC revenue was $794.80 million with a strong year-over-year trajectory implied by mix gains and channel productivity.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Birkenstock Holding plc delivered revenue of $526.34 million, a gross profit margin of 58.41%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $93.87 million, a net profit margin of 17.83%, and adjusted EPS of $0.51, representing year-over-year EPS growth of 75.86%. The quarter exceeded consensus on revenue and EPS, supported by controlled promotions, disciplined inventory, and favorable channel mix.

The primary operational highlight was efficient cost management that preserved gross margin while scaling revenue. Main business momentum was anchored in wholesale, which contributed $1.30 billion on a trailing-quarter basis, while direct-to-consumer added $794.80 million, reflecting the company’s expanding owned-channel footprint and mix shift toward higher-margin sales.

Current Quarter Outlook

Wholesale as the Core Commercial Engine

Wholesale remains central to the quarter’s delivery, with order books reportedly healthy across strategic accounts. The company’s prior quarter wholesale scale at $1.30 billion underscores the breadth of the franchise’s retail penetration and replenishment cadence, and this quarter’s guidance suggests continued volume stability with limited promotional pressure. With fiscal calendars aligned around holiday sell-through and early spring allocations, the key for this quarter is flow-through from retailers maintaining normalized inventory and placing steady at-once orders, which supports the $402.05 million revenue blueprint and protects overall gross margin. The mix of core silhouettes and evergreen product allows consistent pricing power, and the firm’s procurement discipline is expected to help sustain gross profit margin near recent levels despite currency variability.

Direct-to-Consumer as the Margin Accretive Growth Vector

Direct-to-consumer is positioned as the primary growth lever this quarter, with last quarter’s $794.80 million DTC base highlighting the strength of owned e-commerce and retail. The model benefits from higher unit economics versus wholesale, which, layered onto scale benefits in logistics and merchandising, is a tailwind for both adjusted EPS and net profit margin. For this quarter, channel productivity and traffic conversion are the focus areas; e-commerce demand for franchises such as Arizona and Boston provides predictable velocity, while selective price actions and curated assortments can stabilize average selling prices. The DTC mix shift also reduces dependence on promotional cycles at third-party retailers, offering better visibility into revenue recognition and inventory turns. These dynamics align with the forecasted EPS of $0.25, where operating leverage from owned-channel growth is a key underpinning.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The most important near-term stock drivers are the revenue print relative to the $402.05 million estimate, the trajectory of gross profit margin against last quarter’s 58.41%, and any commentary on order trends and inventories into spring and summer. A second determinant is the cadence of EPS versus the $0.25 forecast; upside would likely reflect better-than-expected DTC contribution and controlled operating expenses. Currency translation is another variable: translation effects can widen the gap between reported and constant-currency growth, so qualitative color on hedging and pricing architecture will shape how investors interpret topline performance. Finally, management’s qualitative guidance on product pipeline and capacity planning, alongside any updates to long-term targets, could set the tone for valuation multiples through the next seasonal cycle.

Analyst Opinions

The majority of recent institutional commentary is bullish. Multiple firms have reiterated Buy ratings with price targets clustered in the mid-$60.00 to mid-$70.00 range, reflecting confidence in the current-quarter setup and medium-term growth. UBS maintained a Buy rating with a $77.00 price target, emphasizing durable demand and favorable channel mix that support the earnings algorithm. Piper Sandler reaffirmed a Buy rating with a $65.00 target, citing product strength and sustained order momentum into the spring assortment. Stifel Nicolaus also kept a Buy rating with a $66.00 target, pointing to expanding direct-to-consumer penetration and disciplined distribution as key levers for margin resiliency. While some neutral views exist, the balance of opinions skews positive, with bullish notes emphasizing potential for upside to EPS if DTC outperformance and expense discipline persist this quarter.

Overall, the setup for fiscal Q1 2026 presents a straightforward path to the guided revenue level of $402.05 million and a reasonable opportunity for marginal expansion in profitability metrics if channel mix and pricing hold. The prior quarter’s execution evidenced consistent gross margin at 58.41% and a net profit margin of 17.83% on $526.34 million revenue, which gives investors a clear baseline. Heading into the print on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market, investors will likely center their attention on DTC growth rates, wholesale reorder strength, and any commentary quantifying the balance between reported and constant-currency performance, as these will determine whether the majority bullish stance remains intact through the next leg of the fiscal year.