Abstract

Warrior Met Coal LLC will report results on February 12, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes consensus expectations for revenue, profitability, margins, and adjusted EPS, reviews last quarter’s delivery, outlines this quarter’s drivers and risks, and compiles prevailing analyst opinions and media commentary from January 01, 2026 to February 05, 2026.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of $379.19 million, an increase of 23.62% year over year, EBIT of $26.21 million with year-over-year growth of sopranosizable 18.72%, and EPS of $0.55 with an expected year-over-year increase of 26.81%. Margin expectations imply a stable to modestly improving profitability profile this quarter, supported by disciplined cost control and steady export pricing, though the gross profit margin and net margin for the current quarter are not explicitly guided; commentary suggests typical seasonality and product mix may keep gross margin broadly in line with recent trends, while adjusted EPS should benefit from higher volumes.

The main business remains mining, which continues to anchor revenue scale and cash generation with demand centered on export metallurgical coal; the outlook emphasizes production reliability and shipping cadence. The most promising segment is mining, which generated $319.97 million last quarter; management focus on throughput and sales timing positions this franchise for steady year-over-year revenue gains as logistics normalize.

Last Quarter Review

The previous quarter delivered revenue of $328.59 million, a gross profit margin of 24.69%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $36.60 million, a net profit margin of 11.15%, and adjusted EPS of $0.70; revenue rose 0.27% year over year while adjusted EPS declined 12.50% year over year, reflecting price and mix normalization.

A key financial highlight was EBIT of $20.72 million, which outperformed the pre-quarter forecast, indicating resilient operating execution despite commodity price volatility. Main business performance was led by mining with $319.97 million in revenue and “all other” contributing $8.62 million; mining’s dominance underscores the company’s reliance on export metallurgical coal sales and shipping timing.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: metallurgical coal mining

Metallurgical coal mining remains the core earnings engine. The company’s expected revenue uplift to $379.19 million implies higher sales volumes and a constructive price environment for premium hard coking coal into key regions such as Asia and Europe. Operating leverage from normalized production and a steady cadence of shipments could support margins, especially as fixed costs are spread over greater tonnage. Cost discipline—primarily in mine productivity, coal processing yields, and logistics—should cushion unit cash costs against any modest seaborne price softness. Given last quarter’s 24.69% gross margin and 11.15% net margin, investors will watch whether improved volumes translate into better absorption and incremental margin improvement in the high-single digits basis points range. Inventory positioning and contract delivery schedules could also influence quarterly revenue recognition and margin transition, making shipping windows an important swing factor for realized performance.

Most promising business: mining throughput and export sales

Within mining, the growth vector is higher throughput and export sales mix into premium-indexed contracts. The last quarter’s mining revenue of $319.97 million provides a base from which the guided step-up appears achievable if rail and port logistics remain fluid. Improved run-of-mine output, stable wash plant utilization, and optimized blending strategies can enhance realized pricing against benchmark indices. On the demand side, ongoing blast furnace utilization in steelmaking hubs and restocking cycles can support sales volumes; even modest demand elasticity can produce a meaningful revenue delta due to the company’s concentrated exposure. The combination of volume growth and managed cost per ton sets up operating leverage, which, if sustained, can enable adjusted EPS expansion even if benchmark prices remain range-bound.

Key stock drivers this quarter: Met coal prices, shipment cadence, and cost inflation

Realized met coal prices are the primary driver for revenue and margins, with benchmark volatility feeding through to contract and spot realizations. A favorable pricing backdrop, even if moderate, can amplify EBIT due to the company’s high revenue concentration in export met coal. Shipment cadence and logistics reliability will determine whether production translates into recognized revenue in this quarter or rolls into the next; port congestion or rail delays can shift revenue timing and affect quarter-on-quarter comparisons. On the cost side, labor, power, and consumables inflation remain watch points; if unit costs rise faster than volumes, margins could compress from the prior quarter’s 24.69% gross margin. The net effect on adjusted EPS will hinge on balancing these factors; consensus anticipates $0.55, down from last quarter’s $0.70, indicating some conservatism on mix and cost trajectory despite higher revenue.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary trends constructive overall, with the majority leaning bullish relative to the consensus setup. Analysts highlighting the upside case point to volume normalization, manageable unit costs, and resilient demand for premium hard coking coal. They also expect that a stable met coal tape can allow for sequential operating margin stabilization and that cash generation should remain healthy on higher revenue, supporting capital returns and balance sheet strength. Bears focus on downside risks from benchmark price volatility and logistics bottlenecks, but this view appears secondary to the prevailing expectation of improved top-line momentum.

The majority view cites the company’s expected revenue of $379.19 million and EPS of $0.55 as achievable midpoints and frames potential upside in the event of stronger shipment execution or favorable price realizations. In this framework, EBIT of $26.21 million with projected 18.72% year-over-year growth provides a baseline for operating performance. Strategists emphasize that upside surprise potential is tied to export index strength and shipping throughput, while downside is tethered to cost creep or a miss in shipment timing. Overall, the balance of commentary anticipates a solid quarter with revenue growth, stable margins relative to recent quarters, and adjusted EPS near consensus, skewed positively if logistics and price realizations cooperate.