The China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA) released its October 2025 auto dealer inventory survey results on November 10, 2025. The comprehensive inventory coefficient for auto dealers stood at 1.17 in October, down 13.3% month-on-month (MoM) but up 6.4% year-on-year (YoY). The inventory level remained below the warning threshold, entering a reasonable range.

1. **October Inventory Coefficient: YoY Rise, MoM Decline** The auto market continued its strong "Golden September, Silver October" seasonal trend, with robust terminal demand. Factors such as local subsidies, promotional events during the National Day holiday, a wave of new model launches, and the rollout of the fourth batch of national trade-in subsidies drove a surge in orders in the first half of the month. Although post-holiday demand saw a cyclical dip, policy-driven effects gradually emerged. The impending expiration of the new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax exemption policy prompted automakers to ramp up promotions, while improved order conversion rates from auto exhibitions provided market support, leading to a decline in dealer inventory levels. According to CADA’s Passenger Vehicle Association statistics, October’s passenger vehicle terminal sales reached 2.387 million units. Based on this, total dealer inventory at the end of October was estimated at around 2.8 million vehicles.

2. **Inventory Declines Across Segments** The inventory coefficient for premium & imported brands dropped 19.0% MoM to 1.15, while joint-venture brands saw a 13.0% MoM decline to 1.20. Domestic brands recorded a 12.1% MoM decrease to 1.16.

3. **Brands with Highest Inventory Depth in October** Most mainstream brands maintained relatively low inventory depth in October, with only two exceeding two months. The top three brands with the highest inventory depth were FAW Hongqi, GAC Trumpchi, and Dongfeng Nissan.

4. **Cautious Outlook for November Demand, Prudent Inventory Management** As November begins, automakers and dealers are entering the year-end sales push, with demand expected to outperform October. Events like the "Double 11" car-buying promotions, the Guangzhou Auto Show, and new model launches are likely to boost year-end consumption. With the NEV purchase tax exemption policy shifting from "full exemption" to "50% reduction" in 2026, automakers such as NIO-SW (09866), XIAOMI-WR (01810), and LI AUTO-W (02015) have introduced order-guarantee policies to attract buyers. Coupled with extended local subsidies and automakers’ year-end volume push, Q4 demand is projected to grow steadily. CADA advises dealers to realistically assess market demand amid rising uncertainties, intensify promotion of trade-in and scrappage policies, enhance services to boost consumer confidence, prioritize cost efficiency, and mitigate operational risks.