**PTA Key Takeaways** **Core View: Neutral** Expectations of supply contraction following industry discussions, coupled with stable polyester demand, suggest limited near-term inventory pressure. However, medium-term concerns persist. Short-term price and processing margins find support.

**Spread: Neutral** PTA downside appears capped due to meeting expectations, with spreads stabilizing. Anticipate a contango structure.

**Spot Market: Cautiously Weak** PTA spot negotiations remain subdued, with basis differentials largely unchanged. Current offers stand at 01-80, while next week’s offers hover at 01-75. Bids are at 01-80, with discussions around 4515–4545.

**Costs: Neutral** PX maintains tight balance amid new capacity expectations. PXN holds steady at 240, reflecting reasonable valuations.

**Plant Updates: Neutral** PTA capacity additions include Hengli #1 restarting, while YS Dahua and Hainan undergo maintenance. Ineos and Sichuan Energy plan November shutdowns, with YS Dahua eyeing late-November maintenance. Dushan’s new unit begins operations, while #1 unit faces planned downtime.

**Downstream Demand: Cautiously Strong** Demand improves as polyester operating rates hold at 91.4%. Sales volumes rise, inventory declines, and downstream sectors (texturing, weaving, dyeing) operate at 84%, 75%, and 82%, respectively. October–November operating rates are estimated at 91% and 89%.

**Supply-Demand Balance: Neutral** PTA balances in October, with manageable pressure in November. Inventory accumulation risks emerge toward year-end.

**Processing Margins: Neutral** PTA-Brent spreads remain low, but processing fees rebound on meeting optimism. PXN stabilizes at $240.

**PX Key Takeaways** **Core View: Neutral** Domestic PX supply stays elevated, but new demand capacity supports balance. Floating prices remain firm, with PXN valuations reasonable. Short-term movements hinge on cost trends.

**Spread: Neutral** Stable supply-demand keeps spreads steady.

**Spot Market: Neutral** PX negotiations are muted, but floating prices show strength. December floating trades at +4.5, while Nov/Dec swaps see offers at +5.

**Plant Updates: Cautiously Weak** Domestic PX operating rates hover at 85%. Wushi Petrochemical undergoes maintenance, while Zhongjin Petrochemical slightly raises output.

**Imports: Neutral** Asia’s operating rate at 78%. Thailand’s PTTG plans a 50-day shutdown late October; Saudi’s Satorp expects November maintenance.

**Downstream Demand: Cautiously Optimistic** Orders hold steady, weaving demand rises, and polyester rates stabilize at 91.4%. PTA capacity expansions proceed as planned.

**Supply-Demand Balance: Neutral** November–December balances remain manageable, with inventories under control.

**Processing Margins: Neutral** PXN holds near $240.

**MEG Key Takeaways** **Core View: Neutral** MEG faces high supply pressure despite increased maintenance. Inventory accumulation risks persist, while coal-driven valuations stay low. Lacking strong upside catalysts, prices may oscillate near-term.

**Spread: Cautiously Bearish** Basis weakens slightly; monitor 1-5 contango.

**Spot Market: Neutral** MEG trades actively, with spot basis at 01+68–72. Discussions range at 4152–4156.

**Plant Updates: Cautiously Bearish** Domestic MEG operating rates at 73% (coal-based at 82%). CNOOC-Shell, Sinopec, and Fujian Refining restart, while Shenghong begins a 35–40-day shutdown. Coal units in Tongliao and Jianyuan undergo maintenance. Henan Energy’s Puyang plans a restart; Zhengdakai and Yankuang target November shutdowns. Zhejiang Petrochemical may cut rates in December.

**Imports: Neutral** Port stocks at 523k tons, with arrivals likely to drive inventory buildup. Overseas units: Malaysia’s Petronas and Taiwan’s Nan Ya idle; Shell’s U.S. units restart, Canada unit under maintenance.

**Downstream Demand: Cautiously Optimistic** Polyester rates at 91.4%, with weaving/dyeing rebounding to 84%/74%/82%.

**Supply-Demand Balance: Cautiously Bearish** October inventories manageable, but November–December supply pressure looms.

**Processing Margins: Cautiously Optimistic** Prices dip, oil-based losses persist, coal margins hover near breakeven.

**Demand Recovery & Inventory Trends** Domestic demand strengthens as cooler weather boosts autumn-winter orders. Downstream sectors restock 1–2 weeks of raw materials.

Polyester sales volumes surge, with inventory dropping to ~13 days. Operating rates hold at 91.4%, supported by improved margins and lean stocks.

**PTA’s “Anti-Internal Competition” Meeting** On October 27, regulators convened PTA and bottle-grade chip producers to address overcapacity risks. The industry seeks to stabilize margins amid prolonged losses.

**PTA November Maintenance Plans** Capacity adjustments include Hengli #1’s restart, Ineos/Sichuan Energy’s November shutdowns, and YS Dahua’s late-November maintenance. Dushan’s #4 unit begins trial runs.

**PTA Inventory Edges Higher** Social inventories (ex-warehouse receipts) rise to 2.201M tons (+24k tons). Basis differentials stabilize.

**PTA Balance Sheet** Cost-driven price gains and supply discipline support processing margins. Polyester’s high operating rates and planned maintenance ease November pressure, but December may see seasonal stock builds.

**PXN Stability & Regional Trends** U.S. gasoline cracks firm on low stocks, though aromatics demand stays muted. Asia’s PX operating rates at 85.9% (domestic) and 78.5% (Asia). Thailand’s PTTG and Saudi’s Satorp plan shutdowns.

**MEG’s Supply Overhang** High operating rates (73% overall, 82% coal-based) and looming shutdowns keep inventory risks elevated. Coal cost support limits downside.

**Port Dynamics** East China MEG stocks at 523k tons (-56k tons weekly). Arrivals may drive near-term inventory gains.

**MEG Balance Sheet** Supply remains the key pressure point. Despite maintenance, inventory accumulation risks persist. Prices may trade range-bound amid weak fundamentals.

**Price Spreads** PTA basis and spreads weaken slightly; MEG basis holds steady with bearish spreads.