Abstract

Saia will report fourth-quarter results on February 10, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes consensus expectations and company projections across revenue, gross profit margin, net profit margin, and adjusted EPS alongside recent institutional perspectives.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company projections point to Saia’s current quarter revenue of USD 773.83 million, a year-over-year decline of 1.61%, with EPS estimated at USD 1.90, and EBIT projected at USD 70.60 million; the forecast implies pressure on margins with gross profit margin and net profit margin likely down year-over-year and adjusted EPS tracking lower. The main business is expected to remain anchored by core operations revenue, while the near-term highlight is disciplined pricing and network optimization amid softer freight. The most promising segment is core LTL operations, anticipated to deliver USD 773.83 million revenue with year-over-year movement of -1.61% as shipment mix and yield management drive stabilization.

Last Quarter Review

Saia’s last quarter delivered revenue of USD 839.64 million, gross profit margin at 25.43%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company at USD 86.32 million, net profit margin at 10.28%, and adjusted EPS of USD 3.22, with year-over-year movements showing modest contraction in revenue at -0.29%, EBIT at -5.24%, and EPS at -6.94%. A notable highlight was the outperformance versus consensus with an EPS surprise of USD 0.68 and EBIT beating estimates by USD 24.67 million, reflecting cost discipline and resilient yield. Main business highlights center on core operations revenue of USD 839.64 million, down 0.29% year over year, supported by network productivity and pricing initiatives.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Core LTL Operations

Saia’s core operations remain the driver of consolidated performance, and the company’s guidance implies a measured pullback in top line alongside lower year-over-year EPS. The forecasted revenue of USD 773.83 million suggests volume softness and a careful approach to yield, with EBIT estimated at USD 70.60 million pointing to more conservative margin assumptions. The quarter-on-quarter cadence may reflect seasonality and near-term demand moderation in industrial end markets, particularly as customers recalibrate inventories and shipping patterns. Management’s pricing discipline should help protect linehaul yield even with a mixed freight environment, but the EPS estimate at USD 1.90 and the negative year-over-year rate indicate earnings pressure relative to the prior-year period. The near-term focus is likely on cost per shipment containment, dock productivity, and terminal efficiency as levers to sustain double-digit net profit margin trends observed last quarter.

Most Promising Business: Network Optimization and Yield Management

The most actionable lever in the current quarter appears to be network optimization—densifying lanes, improving pickup-and-delivery routing, and balancing weight and distance to lift operating ratio. Yield management remains pivotal; targeted contract repricing and accessorial revenue capture can partially offset softer tonnage. While the headline revenue forecast implies a year-over-year decline of 1.61%, consistent yield improvements could narrow the gap in EBIT performance versus top line if operating costs are well controlled. Execution in dock and linehaul efficiency will be essential to maintain gross profit margin resilience near the mid-twenties, and the ability to manage purchased transportation and fuel costs will influence net profit margin outcomes.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock will be sensitive to volume trends in industrial and retail freight, the cadence of contract renewals, and any signals on pricing power. Investors will parse commentary on shipment mix and regional demand dispersion to gauge whether volume declines are cyclical or structural. Margin guidance, especially on operating ratio and gross profit margin trajectory, will be closely watched, as will colored detail on cost initiatives to preserve profitability. Any indication of better-than-expected seasonal freight or early signs of demand reacceleration could shift sentiment, while confirmation of persistent volume softness may keep earnings expectations subdued. EPS delivery against the USD 1.90 estimate and the spread versus historical surprise patterns will be a focal point for near-term stock reaction.

Analyst Opinions

The majority of recent institutional commentary is cautiously constructive, emphasizing Saia’s disciplined execution and cost controls despite near-term demand softness; this aligns with the last quarter’s upside surprise in EPS and EBIT, which underpins confidence in operational levers. Analysts point to balanced risk-reward into the print, citing prudent pricing, resilient yield, and network efficiency as offsets to the expected 1.61% revenue decline and lower year-over-year EPS. The prevailing view highlights the potential for Saia to exceed EBIT expectations if cost-per-shipment improvements and route optimization continue to take hold, with sentiment skewed to the upside should volumes stabilize. This cautiously supportive stance reflects a preference for operationally strong LTL carriers that can navigate a mixed freight backdrop, and it sets the frame for expectations focused on margin resilience rather than top-line expansion.