According to data from logistics industry sources, production regions represented by Guangdong and Yiwu have successively begun price adjustments since July and August, with other surrounding provinces and cities following suit. As of now, provinces and cities that have announced price increases account for approximately 80% of the national market share (based on H1 2025 statistics). Based on the price increase trend since July and August, industry-wide price hikes are expected to continue, with both franchisees and listed companies' performance expected to recover. With the arrival of the September peak season, prices are expected to stabilize and rise across a broader range, potentially improving franchisee operational pressure and enabling phased recovery in express delivery performance and sector sentiment.

**"Anti-Involution" Policy Sets Tone, Express Delivery Price Increases Span North and South Since July**

On July 30, 2024, the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee first proposed strengthening industry self-discipline and preventing "involutionary" vicious competition. In December of the same year, the General Secretary attended the Central Economic Work Conference, which emphasized comprehensive governance of "involutionary" competition and regulation of local government and enterprise behavior. On July 1, 2025, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting again emphasized addressing "low-price disorderly competition among enterprises." On July 8, 2025, the State Post Bureau Party Group held a meeting emphasizing further strengthening industry supervision according to the "five unifications, one opening" basic requirements, improving market system rules in the postal express field, and clearly opposing "involutionary" competition while addressing terminal service quality issues in accordance with laws and regulations.

According to industry data, production regions represented by Guangdong and Yiwu have successively begun price adjustments since July and August, with other surrounding provinces and cities following suit.

On August 4, Guangdong took the lead in issuing collective price increase notifications, with express companies raising 0.1kg special items to above 1.4 yuan per item and continuously extending customer lock-in periods to stabilize market shares. In H1 2025, Guangdong ranked first nationally with 23.43 billion parcels, accounting for 24.5%.

On August 11, Zhejiang and Jiangsu began successive price adjustments. Yongkang in Zhejiang raised prices by 0.3 yuan per item across all weight segments, while Donghai in Jiangsu saw average increases of 0.4 yuan. Zhejiang and Jiangsu's express volumes in H1 2025 accounted for 16.9% and 7.9% of the national total respectively.

On August 20, multiple express companies in Fujian issued price increase notifications to franchise networks and customers, setting minimum prices no lower than 1.5 yuan for items under 0.3kg. Fujian's express volume reached 3.26 billion items in H1 2025, accounting for 3.4% of national volume.

On August 28, express companies in Hubei, Hunan, and Jiangxi successively published customer notices. Hubei implemented two-stage price increases for items under 3kg, with 0.2 yuan increases in September and October respectively. Hunan implemented comprehensive increases exceeding 0.3 yuan per item. Jiangxi, like Hubei, adopted two-stage pricing with 0.2 yuan increases each time. These three provinces account for 3.4%, 2.4%, and 2.0% of national volume respectively, avoiding customer overflow from Guangdong and Fujian price increases.

On September 4, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Henan regions also responded by beginning price adjustments. Starting September 5, all outbound express items from Henan increased by 0.2 yuan per item. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region adjusted pickup prices based on enterprise costs, with items under 0.3kg not below 1.4 yuan and 1.5kg items around 2.6 yuan. Hebei and Henan, as major express provinces second only to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, account for 6.0% and 5.7% of national volume respectively.

On September 8, YTO Express's Linyi Smart Innovation Park intelligent sorting system updated pricing parameters on schedule, automatically increasing all outbound express items by 0.2 yuan per ticket, with orders below cost lines intercepted by the system in real-time. (As the first northern city to exceed 2 billion annual shipments, Linyi's price adjustments have benchmark significance for northern e-commerce markets).

As of now, provinces and cities that have announced price increases account for approximately 80% of the national market share (based on H1 2025 statistics). The express delivery price adjustment actions since July's "anti-involution" policy have achieved nationwide coverage from Yiwu Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong Pearl River Delta to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and northern areas, with each region implementing targeted pricing strategies based on local conditions. This round of express industry price adjustments is not only a short-term response to cost pressures but also a key step in establishing long-term anti-involution mechanisms.

**Price Increase Elasticity Analysis**

Based on the price increase trend since July and August, industry-wide price hikes are expected to continue, with both franchisees and listed companies' performance expected to recover. With the arrival of the September peak season, prices are expected to stabilize and rise across a broader range, potentially improving franchisee operational pressure and enabling phased recovery in express delivery performance and sector sentiment.

According to calculations, assuming each 0.1 yuan price increase affects listed companies' per-item express revenue by 0.05 yuan (with listed companies and franchisees each benefiting 50%), this would increase per-item net profit attributable to parent company by 0.0375 yuan. The price elasticity for ZTO EXPRESS-W/YTO Express/Yunda Holding/STO Express under a 0.1 yuan price increase would be 13%/25%/47%/82% respectively.

**Investment Recommendations**

Under the anti-involution backdrop, although H1 2025 overall express delivery sector operations faced significant pressure with year-over-year performance declines, against the background of short-term price stabilization and medium-to-long-term competitive ecosystem optimization, express companies' performance is expected to recover.

Continue to recommend J&T EXPRESS-W (01519) (Southeast Asia volume growth continues to exceed expectations, combined with anti-involution price recovery expectations bringing domestic market performance recovery), recommend STO Express (002468.SZ) (high performance elasticity), YTO Express (600233.SH), Yunda Holding (002120.SZ), ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057) (industry leader with clear market share targets).

**Risk Warnings**

Economic downturn risks, industry growth below expectations, express delivery price war deterioration, incomplete information statistics.