While diplomats are locked in fierce debates over the core terms of a peace agreement for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a little-noticed detail in the draft stands out: the lure of potential "golden opportunities" in future US-Russia commercial relations.
The proposals, primarily negotiated by Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, and US envoy Steve Witkoff, envision a "long-term economic cooperation agreement" covering energy, rare earths, and data centers between the two nations. The plan also includes establishing a US-Russia investment fund for joint projects, framed as a "strong incentive to avoid returning to conflict."
An alternative interpretation suggests that these businessman-turned-diplomats are crafting an irresistible pitch to keep US President Trump engaged in the negotiations. Bundling grand foreign policy with business opportunities has become a hallmark of Trump’s international dealings.
Before brokering a Gaza ceasefire, Trump floated plans to transform the region into a "Middle East Riviera" resort. During his first term, while pursuing détente with Kim Jong Un, he enthusiastically touted North Korea’s "great beaches" and the potential for oceanfront property development.
Rob Dannenberg, former head of the CIA’s Eurasia Division, believes such rhetoric in the peace proposal reflects a deliberate strategy by Russian President Putin and his inner circle to appeal to Trump’s deal-making instincts and appetite for commercial gains. "I don’t think Putin cares about US-Russia business deals in any substantive way," Dannenberg said. "He cares because his counterpart Trump does."
While these business-friendly provisions may not survive final negotiations—with US, Ukrainian, and European diplomats pushing for revisions—some proposals echo earlier efforts. Earlier this year, the US government urged Ukraine to sign a mineral rights agreement framed as a security guarantee, though the initiative has since stalled.
When asked about the commercial elements, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly referred to Secretary Rubio’s post-meeting remarks in Geneva, calling the draft a "living, evolving document" with "significant progress," though details remain undisclosed.
Among the more imaginative ideas is Dmitriev’s proposal for Elon Musk to build an undersea tunnel linking the US and Russia beneath the Bering Strait. Yet even if a compromise is reached and the conflict ends, obstacles to a new era of US-Russia commerce loom large.
Bilateral trade has long been minimal, with Bloomberg data showing just $4.4 billion in 2023. Even before the 2022 invasion or Crimea’s annexation in 2014, Russia never ranked among America’s top 15 trading partners. The US typically runs a deficit, importing Russian fertilizers and uranium for nuclear plants.
After a decade of intense sanctions, US firms face steep risks in Russia. Senator Elizabeth Warren noted Monday that Trump cannot unilaterally lift sanctions, as Congress holds that authority. Moreover, even with a peace deal, relations could sour again.
Most Western companies may stay away post-conflict, and the Kremlin seems equally unwelcoming. Elina Ribakova of PIIE compared the scenario to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which failed to trigger expected investment. "I don’t see why any major US firm would risk entering Russia now," she said. "The more sanction rounds, the fewer companies return."
Many US and European firms are still unwinding Russian operations amid Moscow’s exit restrictions. Putin recently approved Citigroup’s sale of its local unit to a Russian bank. Earlier this year, he warned against rolling out a "red carpet" for Western businesses that might seek to return, telling domestic entrepreneurs that a pre-war normal is unlikely.
Despite the challenges, Russia sees potential benefits in warmer US commercial ties. It has courted Boeing to return, as sanctions strain aviation parts and maintenance, jeopardizing safety standards.
Thomas Graham of CFR, author of *Getting Russia Right*, noted the proposal’s focus on Arctic resources and AI—key to Russia’s "long-term economic development" and global stature. These are also areas where the US holds "significant advantages" and Russia craves technology, he added, suggesting Moscow aims to leverage them in negotiations.
No evidence suggests improved US-Russia trade prospects are altering Moscow’s war terms, but that hasn’t stopped Trump from speculating. In a recent CBS interview, he said of Putin: "I think he wants to make a deal. He wants to do business with us, make big money for Russia—and I think that’s great. That’s what I like."