International oil prices faced downward pressure on Thursday, with Brent crude once again falling below the critical $65 mark. Bearish factors on the supply side dominated market sentiment, as calls from the US Energy Secretary for a doubling of global oil production, combined with a warning from the International Energy Agency (IEA) about a supply surplus this year, intensified traders' concerns over the prospects of growing supply. WTI crude oil fell by as much as 2% during the day to $59.59 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 1.5% to $63.6 per barrel. The US Energy Secretary stated that global oil production needs to be doubled.

Multiple bearish supply factors were released simultaneously. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that US crude inventories rose by 3 million barrels last week; repair work on a key loading facility on the Black Sea in Kazakhstan is nearing completion, with export restrictions set to be lifted soon; Venezuelan crude oil is returning to the global market; and Indian refiner Reliance Industries has once again purchased Russian crude oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday raised its oil demand growth forecast but maintained its judgment that a significant supply surplus will occur this year. Geopolitical risks have somewhat eased, as US President Trump stated on Wednesday that he would postpone imposing tariffs on Europe. Supply-side pressures are becoming concentrated Supply recoveries from several oil-producing countries are accelerating. Repair work at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Black Sea oil loading terminal in Kazakhstan is nearly finished, and export restrictions that have been in place for weeks are about to be lifted, with the backlog of cargoes being cleared. Venezuelan oil shipments are making a comeback in the global market. Indian refiner Reliance Industries has again purchased Russian crude oil, with delivery scheduled for February and March. According to data from the American Petroleum Institute, US crude inventories increased by 3 million barrels last week. Official inventory data will be released later on Thursday. IEA maintains surplus warning The International Energy Agency slightly raised its oil demand growth forecast on Wednesday but maintained its judgment that a significant supply surplus will occur this year. The agency provides energy policy advice to major economies. Oil prices had briefly moved higher early in 2026, primarily supported by temporary instability in Iran, a key member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and shipment disruptions from Kazakhstan. Geopolitical risks cool Geopolitical tensions have moderated. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he would postpone imposing tariffs on Europe, stating that a potential agreement framework on Greenland had been reached. "Geopolitical temperatures have cooled by a few degrees," said Ole Sloth Hansen, a strategist at Saxo Bank. However, he noted that given a series of unresolved supply threats, coupled with cold weather boosting US demand, oil prices are likely to "remain firm."