Title

Earning Preview: Range Resources this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 8.05%, and institutional views are cautious

Abstract

Range Resources will report fiscal quarterly results on February 24, 2026, Post Market; the upcoming print is expected to show revenue of $737.88 million and adjusted EPS of $0.73, with investors watching the balance between winter price tailwinds and hedge effects on margins.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest consolidated projections, the market expects Range Resources to deliver revenue of $737.88 million this quarter, up 8.05% year over year, with adjusted EPS around $0.73, up 20.32% year over year; EBIT is projected at $235.50 million, up 23.68% year over year. Consensus does not specify gross or net margin forecasts, but the implied earnings trajectory points to margin uplift versus the prior year, driven by stronger realizations and operating leverage embedded in the EBIT and EPS forecasts. The core commodity sales line remains the central engine, with last quarter’s “natural gas, LNG and oil” revenue at $611.49 million and total revenue up 14.67% year over year; near-term outlook centers on winter demand and realized prices, with January cold-weather volatility acting as a supporting backdrop. Within the portfolio, the core commodity sales line remains the most promising profit contributor given higher year-over-year growth implied by EBIT and EPS forecasts, while derivative marks and marketing can add variability around the base case.

Last Quarter Review

Range Resources reported revenue of $611.49 million, a gross profit margin of 43.13%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $144.00 million, a net profit margin of 22.01%, and adjusted EPS of $0.57, up 18.75% year over year; total revenue rose 14.67% year over year. A key swing factor was profitability normalization after stronger prior-quarter results, with quarter-on-quarter net profit down 39.26%, underscoring the impact of price moves and hedge accounting on quarterly earnings cadence. By line item, “natural gas, LNG and oil” revenue was $611.49 million, derivative fair value contributed $92.95 million, and marketing and related activity added $43.81 million; against this mix, the company still delivered a 14.67% year-over-year increase in total revenue and an 18.75% year-over-year gain in adjusted EPS.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: core commodity sales and operating earnings trajectory

The core commodity sales line (“natural gas, LNG and oil”) will define the quarter’s revenue and earnings profile. Consensus pegs revenue at $737.88 million, implying an 8.05% year-over-year increase, alongside EBIT of $235.50 million and adjusted EPS of $0.73, reflecting 23.68% and 20.32% year-over-year growth, respectively. The uplift embedded in EBIT and EPS relative to revenue suggests scope for firmer margins compared with the prior year’s baseline, assuming realized pricing advantages from winter conditions are at least partially preserved into settlement and are not fully offset by hedging or basis costs. January’s cold-weather spike in US natural gas futures indicates that realized prices for a portion of the quarter could benefit from seasonal tightness and short-term demand surges. However, the degree to which this translates into reported revenue and earnings will hinge on price capture, the timing of sales, and hedge overlays that can dampen spot-price upside. Within the reported revenue mix, changes in derivative fair value and the level of marketing activity can also influence the top line without the same flow-through to operating profit, so investors will parse the EBIT-to-revenue relationship carefully. The last reported quarter’s gross margin of 43.13% and net margin of 22.01% show that the company exited the prior period with a healthy margin structure. With consensus bracketing stronger EBIT and EPS growth than revenue growth, markets are implicitly anticipating improved operating leverage or mix benefits this quarter, subject to the eventual impact of mark-to-market items. If commodity sales volumes and realized prices align with the January market backdrop, the core business should meet or exceed the revenue trajectory assumed by consensus; if hedge effects or basis differentials weigh on realized prices, EBIT/EPS could converge closer to revenue growth.

Most promising business driver: margin leverage within core sales

The forecasts indicate the most promising near-term driver is not a new category, but margin leverage within the core commodity sales line. Consensus implies a 23.68% year-over-year increase in EBIT versus an 8.05% revenue rise, which points to a potential improvement in operating profitability as per-unit realizations and cost structure interact favorably. If the winter pricing uplift captured in January translates into a higher average realized price for the quarter, the benefit should flow disproportionately to EBIT and EPS, given largely fixed elements of the operating cost base. Last quarter’s mix included $92.95 million from derivative fair value and $43.81 million from marketing, underscoring how these items can add volatility around reported revenue and earnings. When derivative marks align with underlying price trends, they can amplify reported results; when they run counter to spot moves, they can mute the translation of commodity-price gains into EBIT. The promising aspect for this quarter is that the consensus build still targets double-digit year-over-year growth in both EBIT and EPS, suggesting the market expects better net realizations and a solid conversion of revenue into profit, even after accounting for hedge effects. Tactically, this places emphasis on the reported reconciliation between realized pricing, hedging outcomes, and the revenue/EBIT bridge investors will see on February 24, 2026, Post Market. A cleaner alignment of commodity sales with spot benchmarks should support the forecasted EPS of $0.73, while any outsized derivative mark-to-market swings could add noise. Overall, the combination of seasonal price strength and disciplined cost execution is what underpins the optimism embedded in the earnings forecasts.

Key stock-price swing factors this quarter

Short-term commodity price behavior across February and into late winter remains a primary swing factor for the shares, particularly given the January cold-weather spike that lifted natural gas benchmarks and sentiment toward gas-levered equities. The market will assess whether that spike materially improves the quarter’s average realized prices or if subsequent normalization eroded part of the benefit before revenue recognition. The balance between realized prices and hedge settlements will be central to how revenue translates into EBIT and EPS, making the derivative fair value line and hedge disclosures key reading in the release. Sell-side stance adjustments since early January frame expectations at a cautious level; several institutions moved or reaffirmed ratings at Hold/Equalweight with price targets clustered in the high $30s to mid $40s, signaling a preference to see confirmation of better price capture and margins. Against that backdrop, an earnings print that aligns with or exceeds the revenue estimate of $737.88 million and the EPS estimate of $0.73, while demonstrating a resilient EBIT margin, could recalibrate sentiment. Conversely, if derivative marks or basis costs dilute the translation of price into earnings, the shares could track toward the more conservative price targets highlighted by the neutral camp. Finally, the quarterly cadence seen in the prior period—GAAP net profit of $144.00 million and a quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit of 39.26%—reminds investors that non-cash and timing effects can meaningfully affect reported results. Clear walk-throughs of revenue composition, hedge impacts, and unit economics can mitigate uncertainty and help markets anchor around the consensus trajectory. In the absence of explicit gross and net margin guidance from the market’s current forecasts, disclosure quality and commentary on price capture will likely shape the near-term reaction.

Analyst Opinions

Bearish/cautious views constitute the majority during the January 1, 2026 to February 17, 2026 window (bullish vs bearish/cautious: 0 to 4), with several well-followed institutions signaling neutral stances and restrained price targets. - Wells Fargo moved to Equalweight from Overweight on January 12, 2026 and adjusted its price target to $43.00, a shift that places the stock in a neutral risk-reward posture heading into the print. This downgrade communicates a more balanced outlook and reduces the implied upside cushion versus prior targets, suggesting that near-term catalysts were insufficient to maintain a more constructive stance. - RBC on January 14, 2026 trimmed its price target to $44.00 and reaffirmed a Sector Perform rating, reinforcing a measured approach as the quarter’s commodity and hedge dynamics unfold. The proximity of $44.00 to other neutral targets implies a clustering of expectations around mid-$40s fair value in the absence of clear incremental catalysts. - Jefferies reiterated a Hold rating with a $39.00 price target in early January 2026, positioning valuation closer to the lower band among recent neutral targets and embedding a conservative view on near-term upside. The gap between $39.00 and the mid-$40s targets underscores differing assessments of price capture and margin resilience but remains within a broadly cautious spectrum. - Siebert Williams Shank maintained a Hold rating on January 23, 2026, further consolidating the neutral tilt across the analyst set during the period under review. While individual rationales may vary, the collective posture keeps the emphasis on execution against consensus, hedge outcomes, and realized price translation in the upcoming quarter. Taken together, the majority opinion projects a cautious baseline into the February 24, 2026, Post Market release, with price targets largely spanning $39.00 to $44.00. The common thread across these views is a demand for confirmation that the revenue estimate of $737.88 million and the $0.73 EPS can be achieved with durable margin support, given recent commodity volatility. For the shares to break from this cautious framing, investors may look for evidence of strong price capture in the core commodity sales line, a benign impact from hedging on realized pricing, and a clean EBIT bridge that substantiates the 23.68% year-over-year EBIT growth implied by consensus. If the company’s disclosures and commentary illustrate that January’s price strength contributed meaningfully to average realized prices and that derivatives did not materially dampen the translation into operating profit, the cautious camp could reassess their neutral stance. Conversely, if hedge settlements or basis costs materially narrow the spread between revenue and EBIT, current targets and ratings appear consistent with a more range-bound scenario. The majority institutional stance therefore sets up an expectations backdrop where execution clarity on revenue composition and margin durability can catalyze the next leg in sentiment—either validating the cautious positioning or inviting upgrades should operating leverage outperform the baseline.