Uber is set to release its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 before the US market opens on August 6.
According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, the company’s revenue is expected to be $12.47 billion, representing a 16% year-on-year increase; adjusted net profit is projected at $1.668 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%; and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are anticipated to be $0.83, up 21.5% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2025, Uber achieved revenue of $11.53 billion, an increase of 14% year-on-year, slightly below the expected $11.62 billion; however, adjusted EPS reached $0.83, significantly exceeding market expectations of $0.50, showcasing the company's excellent performance in cost control and operational efficiency.
On the business front, ride-hailing saw robust growth, and food delivery demonstrated strong profitability flexibility: EBITDA grew by 45% year-on-year, far surpassing the total booking volume growth of 18%. The freight business continued to be under pressure, mainly due to the sluggish global freight market.
Regarding operational data, monthly active platform consumers (MAPCs) reached 171 million, a year-on-year increase of 14%; total trips were 3.07 billion, a year-on-year growth of 18%. The growth rate of user usage frequency outpaced the increase in user numbers, reflecting the ongoing enhancement of platform stickiness.
Financially, operating and free cash flow both exceeded $2.3 billion, a year-on-year surge of 66%, providing ample funds for the company's $750 million stock repurchase plan. Adjusted EBITDA grew by more than 35% year-on-year, further validating the maturity of the profit model.
For the second quarter, the market's focus is primarily on the quality and profitability flexibility of core business growth. Institutions generally expect that ride-hailing and food delivery, two main pillars, will continue to drive growth. Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that whether the total booking amount can maintain high double-digit growth (above 15%) and whether the conversion rate from bookings to revenue is stable or improving will directly affect the platform’s pricing power and monetization efficiency. Food delivery showed impressive EBITDA growth last quarter, far surpassing booking volume growth. The market will closely monitor whether its profit margin continues to expand and whether the ride-hailing business can show similar profitability improvement. BlackRock believes Uber could continue to enhance unit economics by optimizing incentive measures, improving operational efficiency, and better partnering with merchants.
In terms of the freight business, despite its poor performance last quarter due to industry cycles, Deutsche Bank analysts noted that for Q2, it is crucial to observe whether the global freight market stabilizes and whether the cost optimization and customer structure adjustment measures taken by Uber can bring sequential improvements. Wells Fargo believes that this business is still a short-term drag but sees huge integration potential in the long term.
Continuous strong cash flow and capital allocation efficiency are also of great concern. Last quarter's free cash flow surged 66% to $2.3 billion; UBS analysts believe this will be a key indicator to measure whether Uber is entering a mature stage of "profitable growth." Regarding stock buybacks, Uber's $7.5 billion buyback plan is its first large-scale buyback in history; Barclays analysts are watching the execution strength of the buyback and future guidance by management, viewing it as a testament to the company's confidence in cash flow and stock price. High-margin business contributions are also becoming increasingly significant. Morgan Stanley especially emphasized the growth potential of the advertising business and Uber One membership subscription service, expecting advertising revenue growth to continue outpacing core business, and higher penetration rates and user value from membership services to aid overall monetization capability.
Strategically, progress in commercializing autonomous driving and building the "super app" ecosystem is highly anticipated. Citi analysts believe that although autonomous driving's short-term financial contribution is limited, the technological advancements, user feedback, and future deployment plans disclosed during the earnings call will influence long-term cost structure and competitive advantage. Bernstein stressed that Uber needs to demonstrate its core technology and strategic control in the autonomous driving field, rather than merely acting as a passenger aggregation platform. Jefferies analysts are focusing on cross-category user utilization and successful cross-selling cases, considering that the synergy effect of the "super app" ecosystem is the key to enhancing user lifetime value and platform barriers.
However, macro headwinds and exchange rate risks remain. The strengthening US dollar could negatively impact international revenue and profit by 1-2%, and the management's response strategies are worth noting. Additionally, increasing global economic uncertainty could affect user spending on travel and meal delivery, especially in Europe and parts of Asia. Whether there are signs of consumption downgrade will test Uber's resilience.
Overall, Wall Street holds relatively optimistic expectations for Uber's Q2 earnings report. Several institutions predict that the core business will maintain robust growth, with profitability quality and cash flow performance expected to continue improving. Optimistic parties like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are bullish on the strong performance of the ride-hailing and food delivery businesses and further improvements in food delivery profit margins, considering strong free cash flow and the stock buyback plan as catalysts for driving stock prices. Meanwhile, the growth in the advertising business and membership services also provides new profit growth points for Uber.
Nevertheless, some institutions remain cautious, reminding investors to pay attention to the slow recovery of the freight business, the exchange rate shock caused by the strengthening US dollar, and the ongoing risks of sustained investment in the autonomous driving field. Whether Uber can continue enhancing the profitability of its core business and the synergy effect of its ecosystem through strategic execution will be crucial to its long-term valuation support.
In summary, if Uber can continue its current strong growth momentum, optimize its profitability structure, and make substantive progress in autonomous driving and the "super app" ecosystem, it is expected to consolidate its leading position in the mobility and local lifestyle services sectors and gain continued recognition from the capital market.
This content is generated based on Tiger AI and Bloomberg data, for reference only.
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