Title

Earning Preview: Addus HomeCare this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 27.71%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

Addus HomeCare is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 23, 2026 Post Market; current expectations point to revenue of $372.31 million and adjusted EPS of 1.73, with investors watching the balance between growth and margins following a solid prior-quarter beat.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest compiled expectations, Addus HomeCare’s fourth-quarter revenue is projected at $372.31 million, representing 27.71% year-over-year growth, with adjusted EPS forecast at 1.73, implying a 28.09% increase year over year. Consensus forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit or net margin are not explicitly available, while EBIT is estimated at $44.04 million, up 31.00% year over year. The company’s core operations remain driven by scale in recurring services, and the outlook frames further growth supported by ongoing execution and cost discipline implied by the consensus trajectory for revenue and EBIT. Among operating lines, the largest revenue base provides visibility for continued contribution this quarter, while segment mix will remain an important lens through which margin developments are assessed.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Addus HomeCare delivered revenue of $362.30 million (up 25.02% year over year), a gross profit margin of 32.21%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $22.85 million, a net profit margin of 6.31%, and adjusted EPS of 1.56 (up 20.00% year over year). Financially, the company exceeded prior estimates with a revenue surprise of $7.83 million and an EPS beat of 0.03, while EBIT reached $40.74 million, up 32.05% year over year, and net profit improved by 3.61% quarter over quarter. By revenue contribution, Personal Care totaled $275.77 million (76.12% of revenue), Hospice $68.89 million (19.01%), and Home Health $17.64 million (4.87%), underscoring the dominance of the core service line and the supporting roles of other lines in the consolidated margin structure.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Service Line Performance

The core service line represented $275.77 million in the prior quarter, accounting for 76.12% of consolidated revenue, and remains the central determinant of quarterly performance given its scale and recurring nature. With top-line growth expected to reach 27.71% year over year for the quarter now being reported, execution within this line will be a key driver of whether reported results align with or exceed expectations for both revenue and earnings. The translation from revenue growth to profit growth will be monitored through the relationship between direct service costs and pricing, which, in the previous quarter, supported a gross profit margin of 32.21%. Operating leverage will be a central theme. The recent quarter’s net profit margin of 6.31% sets a quantitative reference; investors will look for signals that incremental revenue can sustain or expand contribution margins without disproportionate increases in operating costs. The company’s ability to maintain scheduling efficiency and manage visit-level economics directly influences the gross-to-operating margin bridge. With consensus not specifying margin targets, the key inference is that the market expects stable to improving conversion of growth into profits based on the forecasted increase in EBIT to $44.04 million. Any deviation here—either through tighter cost control or a more costly revenue mix—could shift the EPS outcome relative to the 1.73 expectation. Given the segment’s size, even small percentage shifts in efficiency can have an outsized effect on total profitability. If revenue lands near $372.31 million but variable costs trend above plan, gross margin could compress versus the prior quarter’s 32.21%, pressuring net margin and EPS. Conversely, if staffing, utilization, and service-mix execution remain favorable, improved throughput can reinforce the prior quarter’s net margin of 6.31% and support incremental upside to the EPS forecast. As a result, attention will converge on whether volume growth aligns with planned visit economics, which is central to delivering on the implied margin trajectory embedded in consensus EBIT growth of 31.00% year over year.

Secondary and Emerging Lines

The Hospice line contributed $68.89 million last quarter, or 19.01% of revenue, and is positioned to influence consolidated performance through its share of the revenue mix in the upcoming print. While the company-level forecasts do not disaggregate by service line, the consensus view for strong year-over-year growth sets a constructive backdrop for contributions from this area. The focus this quarter will be on how the Hospice cadence supports overall margin stability, especially in light of the prior-quarter margin profile and the projection for continued EBIT growth. Home Health represented $17.64 million last quarter, or 4.87% of revenue, and offers a smaller but potentially flexible lever for incremental growth relative to a modest base. Its contribution to consolidated trends is smaller in absolute terms, yet it can still impact margin direction through changes in service mix and visit intensity. The path to matching or exceeding the 28.09% year-over-year EPS growth forecast will partly depend on how this line scales with discipline and whether its contribution supports or dilutes consolidated margins compared to the 32.21% gross margin achieved last quarter. Across these lines, the overarching question is balance: how revenue composition in the quarter interacts with the cost base to shape consolidated profitability. With EBIT forecast to rise to $44.04 million, the expectation implies reinforcement of the operating margin profile established in the prior quarter. Execution that meets this profile would underpin the EPS forecast of 1.73, while a mix shift toward more cost-intensive episodes could temper the translation of revenue growth into earnings.

Key Stock Drivers This Quarter

The primary stock driver is whether reported revenue aligns with the $372.31 million consensus and whether EPS tracks to the 1.73 forecast. Surprises around these figures—either from top-line variance or from margin differentials—are likely to shape immediate post-report trading. The last quarter’s outperformance versus estimates sets a recent pattern that can influence expectations, but investors will need confirmation that momentum continues under current operating conditions. Margin trajectory relative to the previous quarter’s 32.21% gross margin and 6.31% net margin will be carefully assessed in the context of consensus EBIT growth of 31.00% year over year. If operating efficiency maintains or improves and revenue mix remains supportive, the pathway to meeting or exceeding the EPS forecast becomes clearer. Conversely, a higher-than-anticipated cost footprint could offset volume gains, creating downside risk to earnings despite strong year-over-year revenue growth. The composition of revenue across the core line and the two smaller lines is the third lever to watch. An outcome that skews toward lines with stronger contribution rates would likely reinforce operating income relative to forecast, while an unfavorable mix would pressure the conversion from revenue to earnings. Taken together, the stock’s near-term performance will hinge on the interaction of revenue delivery, cost containment evidenced in gross-to-operating margin metrics, and the mix effects observable in the segment breakdown at the time of reporting.

Analyst Opinions

The analyst balance over the recent period is decisively bullish. In the latest six-month window, two identifiable institutional views skew positive: a maintained Buy from a well-followed research house and a Buy initiation with a $135 price target from another major brokerage. In addition, across recently cited sell-side tallies, the average rating is overweight with a mean price objective around $141, signaling constructive expectations into the print. The ratio of bullish to bearish opinions in the collected set stands at 2:0, indicating 100% bullish sentiment among those captured. The bullish stance is grounded in the company’s demonstrated ability to convert revenue growth into higher operating earnings, as evidenced by the prior quarter’s 32.05% year-over-year EBIT growth versus a 25.02% revenue increase, alongside an EPS beat. With current-quarter projections calling for revenue of $372.31 million (+27.71% year over year), EBIT of $44.04 million (+31.00%), and adjusted EPS of 1.73 (+28.09%), analysts see a cohesive story of profitable growth if the company maintains recent margin discipline. From a near-term perspective, this alignment between top-line momentum and anticipated operating leverage supports the constructive positioning into the results. Consensus positive views also cite the stability implied by a large core service base and a supportive beat-and-raise narrative in the last report, where revenue exceeded estimates by $7.83 million and EPS topped expectations. In this context, the absence of explicit margin forecasts does not preclude optimism; rather, it places emphasis on management’s ability to sustain the recent 32.21% gross margin and 6.31% net margin as a baseline from which to build. The pathway to upside, as highlighted by bullish analysts, remains tied to holding cost trends in line with plan and delivering revenue consistent with the $372.31 million expectation. On balance, the majority institutional view anticipates that if the company delivers within the forecast ranges and maintains a revenue mix consistent with last quarter’s configuration—where the core service line was 76.12% of revenue—earnings can track to or slightly exceed the 1.73 adjusted EPS forecast. The constructive stance also reflects comfort with the sequential improvements in profitability, including a 3.61% quarter-over-quarter increase in net profit last quarter, which helps anchor sentiment around sustained operating momentum. Overall, the preponderance of analyst commentary aligns with a positive setup, predicated on the company meeting consensus revenue and EBIT forecasts and demonstrating continued discipline in translating growth into earnings.