当地时间10月14日，美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话。他表示：货币政策未来走向将由数据和风险评估驱动。美国政府停摆前的数据显示，经济增长可能好于预期。美国就业市场下行风险已上升。
我们手头的数据表明，当前经济状况与9月份时一致。目前货币政策不存在“无风险”路径。近期数据显示就业市场呈现低增长、低失业的特点。就业市场风险上升，证明9月降息合理。
现有数据显示，关税正在推高价格压力。美联储拥有政府来源之外的其他数据可供使用。剥夺美联储支付利息的权力将使利率控制变得非常复杂。我们认为美联储在资产负债表规模上具有更加“灵活”的空间。
未来几个月资产负债表缩减或接近尾声。可能会在未来数月停止缩表。美联储官员将讨论资产负债表的构成。美联储仍致力于在较长时间内实现仅持有国债的资产负债表。当前美联储政策工具箱运行良好。看到货币市场部分领域出现收紧迹象。
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