AI applications and surging computing demands are driving a sharp increase in high-performance memory chip needs, with DRAM spot prices rising 9.8% month-on-month, maintaining an accelerated upward trend. In September, China's semiconductor sales grew 15.0% year-on-year, reflecting further improvement in growth rates, while the semiconductor and electronics industries continue to operate at high capacity. Key insights from GTHT include:
1. **Electronics Sector Sustains High Growth, Export Demand Improves** - AI computing demand continues to boost the electronics supply chain, with tight DRAM supply pushing prices higher. - U.S.-China trade talks show positive progress, lifting export expectations. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose significantly, while port cargo/container throughput improved.
2. **Downstream Consumption: Weak Property and Domestic Demand** - Property sales remain sluggish, with transactions in 30 major cities down 39.9% YoY. - Durable goods face pressure: October auto retail sales fell 9.0% YoY due to demand pull-forward and subsidy reductions. - Pork prices rose 4.1% MoM on tighter supply and recovering demand.
3. **Tech & Manufacturing: Electronics Boom vs. Construction Weakness** - DRAM prices surged amid AI-driven demand, while semiconductor sales grew 15.0% YoY. - Construction demand stays soft, with steel prices rebounding due to environmental inspections.
4. **Upstream Resources: Coal Holds Steady, Metals Range-Bound** - Coal supply tightens ahead of November safety checks, keeping prices flat. - Industrial metals trade narrowly as Fed signals caution on rate cuts.
5. **Logistics & Mobility: Port Throughput Rises** - Long-distance travel demand recovers slightly, while freight logistics decline MoM. - Container shipping rates jump on improved export outlook.
**Risks**: Domestic policy shifts, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties.